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No one can tell if Scotland actually wants independence or not
Nicola Sturgeon pulled the trigger on a second Scottish independence referendum this week, and she will be hoping that it’s a case of second time lucky.
However, the SNP leader’s may not be feeling entirely confident, as no one seems to have a clear idea how Scots feel about destroying the union.
As recent elections have proved, polls are not always entirely trustworthy, but the results on the desire for #indyref2 are, it’s fair to say, a bit of a mixed bag.
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Depending on which poll you read on which day, Scots either are very much for independence or, like the 2014 vote made clear, against it.
A Survation poll taken after the First Minister’s announcement showed more people would vote against independence – no change since September last year:
Scottish independence poll:
Yes: 47% (-)
No: 53% (-)(via Survation / taken post-FM’s speech)
Chgs. (or no chgs.) w/ Sep 2016.— Britain Elects (@britainelects) March 14, 2017
An Opinium survey had different percentages but the same ultimate result, with 44% saying they would vote yes, compared to 47% who would vote no.
This small gap yawns wider in a YouGov poll, which suggests that the desire for independence has waned further, despite Ms Sturgeon’s hopes for the contrary:
NEW: An exclusive @thetimes/YouGov poll reveals huge opposition to Scottish independence (57% to 43%) #indyref2 #scottishreferendum pic.twitter.com/GV6X0lCp0v
— Peter Yeung (@ptr_yeung) March 14, 2017
However, The Scotsman – described as ‘Scotland’s National Newspaper’ – seems much more positive about the results, citing a “respected” Social Attitudes Survey to declare that support for independence has hit a record high of 46%:
Respected Scottish Social Attitudes Survey finds support for independence higher than ever. Double the level in 2012. #ScotRef pic.twitter.com/H8aQ95hfoS
— David Livey (@DavidLivey) March 14, 2017
That 46% figure represents a 1% rise of the Yes vote from the 2014 referendum, while most polls taken on the subject over the past year have shown clear support for a No vote:
Last two #IndyRef polls had Yes +1 and No +3 (w/ undecided voters). Surveyed a few weeks apart, mind. https://t.co/O4BeV89OUI pic.twitter.com/Bu7e5QTQd0
— Ben Walker (@brtnelexben) March 13, 2017
Depending on what paper you read, however, and depending on your point of view, you will either be cheered or dismayed by the results so far:
Support for Scottish independence flits between 43% and 47% but the average Yes vote is 47% – exactly the same as it was before Brexit.
Ms Sturgeon is no doubt pinning her hopes that any Brexit fallout will swing the pendulum definitively in her favour.
Top pic: Rex
