North, Northern Ireland And Midlands To Be 'Devastated' By 'No Deal' Brexit, Leaked Analysis Reveals

Graeme Demianyk

A “no deal’ Brexit will shrink the North East of England’s economy by 16%, the Government’s own analysis reveals as it lays bare how the north, Midlands and Northern Ireland would be worst affected by quitting the EU. 

Sky News and the BBC have both published details from the controversial leaked Brexit impact assessment, and it makes grim reading for every region and country that makes up the UK.

The North East, which overwhelmingly voted to Leave the EU, would suffer the most harm, according to the forecast.

Over 15 years, economic growth would be lower by 3% if the UK stayed in the single market, down 11% if the country got a free trade agreement with the EU, and 16% worse off under ‘no deal’ World Trade Organisation terms.

The GDP of the West Midlands would be hit by 13%, and both the North West and Northern Ireland by 12%, under ‘no deal’. By contrast, London would only be affected by 3.5% under the worst-case scenario.

Paul Brannen, Labour MEP for the North East of England, said:  “This is the type of news we always feared Brexit would bring.

“As the poorest English region, the North East was inevitably going to be more vulnerable to the economic shock of leaving the EU.  To see this figure in black and white however is a real shock. 

“A 16% reduction in the GDP of the North East translates into thousands of job losses.

“This is frankly a nightmare scenario for our region and for the government to be aware of this and still be willing to consider a no deal Brexit is absolute madness.  At the very least we need to stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union.” 

Labour MP Chris Leslie said: “Devastating impact on incomes, jobs and ultimately for the revenues we need for NHS & public services - hitting Midlands, north and Northern Ireland especially hard.

“The public have a right to know, and a right to reverse this if they wish. Nothing need be inevitable.”

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