Do we really need to wait until June 21 to lift all Covid restrictions? Here's what the scientists think

Britain is still facing more than a month of curbs on social freedoms, even though 50million vaccine doses have been administered and death rates are far lower than the five-year average.

So is it now time to lift all restrictions? Here are the arguments for and against from scientists:

Yes, it’s time to lift

Many scientists believe it is time to allow the public to decide for themselves whether they want to meet indoors, wear masks or observe social distancing.

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) modelling on antibody rates suggests that around 65 per cent of the English population now has some immunity and, despite shops and schools opening, case rates have continued to fall.

Some experts have pointed out that Britain is currently in a position that was not expected until June, and said it was unclear what the restrictions were now achieving.

Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology, at the University of Edinburgh, said: “I do think there is scope for moving more quickly. In my view, it could now be safely accelerated. I'd go further and say that this has been the case for several weeks at least.

“I'd judge that the UK is already close to a point that we didn't expect to have reached until late June.

“I understand the desire for caution but we must not forget that this lockdown - like all lockdowns - is causing harm. Restrictions may have been justified back in February but they are much, much harder to justify now.”

Many scientists are now in agreement that Britain has reached a certain level of herd immunity, which is preventing new infections. Cases were down 4.3 per cent in the last week, deaths by 43 per cent, and admissions by 24 per cent. There were just two deaths reported on Sunday.

Despite gloomy modelling suggesting that infections would rise once schools, shops and outdoor gatherings were allowed, there has been no evidence of an increase.

Dr Jason Oke, senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, said: “We are rapidly approaching the figure required for population immunity, if we haven’t already reached that point.

"Even the modellers who have been the most pessimistic in the past have revised their concerns about another wave in the summer.”

Prof Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology, Nottingham Trent University, who has sat on the Government’s Nervtag committee during the crisis, believes ministers should stop ‘micromanaging’ people’s lives, and trust the public to use its own judgment.

He also believes the rule of six could change to ‘anything up to 100’ for people who are not living in a Covid hotspot.

“What I think we should be looking for in general is a transition from rules and restrictions to informed individual judgements based on the context and the level of risk - which is now almost entirely of a relatively mild illness,” he added.

A more staggered approach through May and June would also make it easier to spot any problems, experts believe.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director centre for evidence based medicine, at the University of Oxford: “What I would be looking for is a bit more thought about bringing measures forward ahead of June 21 because it’s going to be difficult to open everything up in a big bang.

“Within the next two weeks we could consider increasing the number of people beyond the rule of six, social distancing and the masks mandate.

“I think at some point we’ve got to get back to a normality and see what happens when we do that. And we want to do that when it’s the middle of summer and infections are low.”

Professor Tim Spector, of King's College, whose symptom tracker app has been monitoring the pandemic since it began, believes that Britain can look to other countries that have opened up successfully without seeing rising cases.

"Other countries with higher rates than us have opened up bars and restaurants with table service without problems and I think art galleries and museums should also open now," he said. "I think outdoor social distancing could be relaxed."

No, we need to take things cautiously

On the other side of the debate, some scientists believe that allowing a few more weeks to be sure that the country will not get caught out by variants is a more sensible approach.

Prof Matt Keeling, professor of populations and disease, University of Warwick, said: “There remains considerable uncertainty over how much the R number will increase after Step 3 of the relaxation roadmap - and I would rather be cautious for a little while longer than risk a rise in cases and associated hospital admissions.”

Waiting for a month would also allow more people to be vaccinated, placing Britain in a far safer position once all measures are released.

Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology, University of Nottingham, said: “I think it’s sensible to be cautious but we’ve got to accept sooner or later we need to be getting back to normality. When the vast majority have had two doses we can really start to think we’re out of the way.

“So far the new variants don't seem to be having a massive impact on serious disease, but it's early days to be sure.”

Other experts say there are worrying signs that the decline in case numbers may have stalled, and in some areas, may even have reversed.

Paul Hunter, professor in medicine, at the University of East Anglia: “The past three days have seen reported cases up on the same day in the previous week. But too early to know if this is the start of a trend and not a random and temporary thing.

“At present I would not argue against the planned easing of lockdown on May 17 but I would not be pushing for bringing forward plans for June at least until we know what the Indian variant is going to do.”

There are also concerns that immunity may start to wane in the coming months, leaving the population once again at risk, as well as fears that little has been done to improve ventilation or work patterns, to limit spread one people return to offices.

Dr Julian Tang, Clinical Virologist at the University of Leicester, said: “Now is not the time to jeopardise these hard-won gains for the sake of a few weeks faster lifting of restrictions. I’m not hanging up my masks just yet…”