The numbers behind Federico Chiesa deal and how much he'll really cost Liverpool

Liverpool are closing in on a second signing of the summer. The Reds are in advanced negotiations to bring Italian forward Federico Chiesa to Anfield in a bargain £10.9m deal.

Reds sporting director Richard Hughes said during the summer that the club would be “opportunistic” when it came to their business in the transfer market, and a swoop for Chiesa certainly ties in with that.

The 26-year-old Juventus winger was, just three years ago, one of the highest-priced young players in European football, his stellar performances for Italy at Euro 2020, played in 2021, as the Azzurri were crowned champions, seeing him courted by the Reds, Chelsea, and Bayern Munich. Reports at the time had suggested Chelsea were willing to pay as much as £85m for the player.

But injuries have hit Chiesa hard, with a serious knee problem putting him out of action for ten months. That spell on the sidelines saw his value plummet.

However, last season saw the son of Parma and Fiorentina legend Enrico Chiesa, post some of his best numbers since turning professional in 2016 at Fiorentina, netting nine goals in 33 games in Serie A.

He is deemed surplus to requirements for Thiago Motta’s Juve side, however, and the Reds are willing to roll the dice on a player who would cost them around 13% of what his price tag was three years ago.

The statistics website Transfermarkt has Chiesa’s current market value at €35m (£29.5m), still well above what Liverpool would be paying for a player who, although carrying risk through his injury record, has been at an elite level and has the right age and profile, ready to contribute immediately. Crucially, he isn’t being signed as a starter week in, week out, and Liverpool would be able to better manage him back to his best by using him more sparingly. He is also going into an offensive side under Arne Slot, far removed from the system he was used to playing at Juve last year.

A £10.9m fee, spread over four years, works out at an annual amortised cost as it appears on the club’s balance sheet of £2.7m a year.

For some context, Liverpool have all but covered Chiesa’s fee by the departure of Bobby Clark to Red Bull Salzburg, with that fee received in full at the time the deal was done, at least from an accounting point of view.

There is little to no risk in the Reds landing Chiesa for the sum they are paying. When you look around the market at some of the prices paid for players in similar positions, with less experience, operating at a lesser level, and of the similar profile, that bears out.

Looking at some of the sums paid for players between 21 and 26, sums of £40m paid by Brighton & Hove Albion for Georginio Rutter, a player who scored six goals in 56 games for Leeds United, stand out, as does the money paid for the exits of former Liverpool duo Fabio Carvalho and Sepp van den Berg, both bringing in a combined £52.5m, despite just 13 Premier League appearances between them seems pretty nonsensical. As with much recruitment, there is an element of blind faith that these players will deliver to levels that they have not yet shown they can reach.

Chiesa has already achieved elite levels of performance, the reason for his tail-off being a long period on the sidelines. This is low risk and potentially high reward for Liverpool and Fenway Sports Group, and it is the kind of move that chimes with what FSG’s head of football, Michael Edwards, became known for during his spell as sporting director at Anfield. It has shades of Gini Wijnaldum and Xherdan Shaqiri about it.

If Chiesa can operate at anywhere near his best, in that rotation of attacking options, Liverpool would have themselves the undoubted bargain of the transfer window, and provided themselves with plenty of room to manoeuvre financially should they need to spend heavily to land a really big fish late in the window, or indeed when they might need a lift come January. They are well positioned.