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NZ election weekly briefing: a dull debate, budget mistakes, Ardern tattoo anyone?

<span>Photograph: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images</span>
Photograph: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images

Kia ora koutou, and welcome to the first instalment of the Guardian’s weekly New Zealand election briefing. I’m Elle Hunt, and I am delighted to be keeping you updated on this campaign through to 17 October with input from my brilliant colleagues Eleanor Ainge Roy and Charlotte Graham-McLay.

No matter what happens next, this is already a historic election, taking place against the backdrop of a global pandemic and Aotearoa’s first recession since 2008. It will decide not just the next parliament but the referendums on end of life choice and legalisation of cannabis.

And it got underway in earnest this week – if not, by all accounts, with any particular bang – with the opening leaders’ debate on TVNZ1 on Tuesday night.

‘It feels to me like you’re both on autopilot’

So suggested John Campbell of Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins’ performance mid-debate, later justified in his quote: “I wouldn’t mind a gin” proving the most resonant of the night.

No real new policy emerged, with Ardern reiterating Labour’s commitment to working towards 100% renewable energy, cleaning up waterways, raising the minimum wage, more public housing, and free school lunches. Labour also intends to further tax the top 2% income earners to pay down debt.

Collins spoke of granting tax cuts to middle-income earners, cuts to government spending, reviewing the recently introduced freshwater reforms (and overturning the irrigation ban), and greasing the regulatory wheels for new housing and agriculture.

The consensus seemed to be that, in a debate that never took off, Collins inched the win through willpower. (Certainly if the metric of success is social media activity, with many memes made of her self-conscious aside, “My husband is Samoan, so … talofa”.)

Writing for the Guardian, Steve Braunias described the debate as “somewhat lacking in spark” and “not a horror show”. Ardern defended her muted performance: “Politics isn’t a bloodsport”, to which Collins said later: “Poor wee thing.”)

Energy was not the only conspicuous absence. Leonie Hayden, Ātea editor of the Spinoff, wrote that both leaders’ responses assumed a “blissful, alternate, Māori-free universe”. (The Hui is airing debates of Māori candidates.)

Judith Collins and husband David Wong-Tung wave to supporters during the Virtual National Party 2020 Campaign Launch at Avalon Studios on 20 September
Judith Collins and husband David Wong-Tung wave to supporters during the Virtual National Party 2020 Campaign Launch at Avalon Studios on 20 September Photograph: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

‘Let’s keep moving’

Ardern’s closing statement speaks to the challenge for National: how to undo the government’s apparent success against coronavirus. Restrictions following the second wave last month were lifted on Monday, though some will remain in Auckland for a further two weeks. Charlotte Graham-McLay’s analysis of the two parties’ contrasting approaches to Covid-19 recovery suggests Labour’s angle of “results [that] speak for themselves” has the opposition cornered. But in The Spinoff, Hayden Donnell suggests the government’s success has left it lacking “the courage to make life better”.

‘Rip it up and start again’

National’s proposed sweetener was a short-term tax cut package, worth $4.7bn, to make the average worker $50 a week richer – but successive mistakes in the budgeting has taken the sheen off. Finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith has admitted the errors, adding up to at least $8bn unaccounted for, but says they won’t affect the proposed cuts. As Stuff’s Thomas Coughlan says, that is less important than the “embarrassing mistake”. Finance minister Grant Robertson is already making hay, describing the Nats’ plan as first in “tatters” and, today, “shambolic”.

‘Dirty dairying’

Labour is to put at least $50m towards helping farmers transition to environmentally friendly farming practices. The “integrated farm planning” policy announced on Thursday follows National’s attempt to claim Ardern called farming “a world of the past” in the debate, sparking some disgruntlement, though Ardern was clearly referring to outdated practices within agriculture. National’s pledge to farmers is to cut red tape, including by repealing the Resource Management Act and changing the Zero Carbon Act, and allow foreign workers into the country. Collins is also making a play for their hearts, describing farmers as “climate change warriors” (despite agriculture’s contributions to emissions) and herself, their champion.

What the polls say

According to the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll prior to the debate on Tuesday, Labour is polling at 48% and National, 31%. In the preferred prime minister rankings, Ardern has been consistent at 54% since June. Collins has dropped to 18%, a fall of 2%.

Minor parties have seen a rise since the last poll in late July, with support for Act climbing to 7% – equating to nine seats in Parliament – and the Green party at 6%, enough to secure their return.

Coming up

The next key debate is the young voters’ debate on Monday, hosted by Jack Tame. It will be streamed on 1news.co.nz and 1 News’ social media channels.

The second leaders’ debate between Ardern and Collins will take place on Wednesday at 7.30pm, moderated by Patrick Gower. All debates will also be catch-up viewing on TVNZ OnDemand.

Overseas voting also opens on Wednesday.

Picture of the week

Icecream flavors named after Zealand political party leaders are displayed in a shop in Christchurch
Scoop of Naughty Winston anyone? Photograph: Mark Baker/AP

The quote

I would never encourage anyone to tattoo me on their person – on their thigh or anywhere else.

So said Ardern, in response to a love-in on the campaign trail between Collins and a man with her gun-toting likeness tattooed on him. Nik Given told Radio New Zealand that the tattoo took about six hours and “a few whiskeys”.

The tweet

Radio New Zealand’s Jo Moir, on the campaign trail in Queenstown with Act’s David Seymour, caught this moment of bliss. (There is also video.)

The moment

It never hurts to get another pair of eyes over something before you print it out and press it into people’s palms, as National candidate Simon Bridges learned this week. While promoting speaking engagements in Tauranga, where he is incumbent MP, Bridges handed out handfuls of flyers billing “Simon Brigdes”. When asked about it by 1 News, Bridges presented it as a display of down-home authenticity: “Grassroots politics isn’t always perfect,” he said, “but it is always real.”

Ka kite anō au i a koutou