The odds suggest there's an almost 50% chance of Trump being impeached

Max Burman
Trump’s controversial recent actions and continued willingness to pick fights with members of his own party could leave him exposed (REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)

Increasingly isolated in the White House, President Trump is facing criticism from all sides following his nuclear standoff with North Korea and response to the white supremacist violence in Charlottesville.

While the ongoing Russia scandal and his broad unpopularity have seen Trump’s approval rating reach record lows for a young presidency, his support among Republican voters has cratered recently.

A recent poll from Marist found that the president’s job approval among all voters is at its lowers point since he took office, while 55 per cent disapprove of Trump after seven months on the job.

Previous presidents have enjoyed lengthy honeymoons, not reaching majority disapproval until hundreds of days in office.

But the businessman turned reality TV star who entered office after losing the popular vote has suffered persistent scandal, high-profile legislative defeats and now increasingly self-inflicted wounds over North Korea and Charlottesville.

While there’s been a steady drumbeat of calls for Trump to be impeached — a vote in Congress to remove him from office — throughout his presidency, the Republican-controlled Congress has remained steadfast in its ability to brush aside his misdeeds in the hope of passing legislation such as healthcare and tax reform.

As the prospect of any meaningful legislative achievement and the number of friends Trump can rely on in Congress dwindles with every presidential tweet and press conference, though, there could be some weakening of GOP support for Trump beyond statements expressing their unequivocal opposition to Nazism.

That’s why Wednesday’s Marist poll, which saw a sizeable dip in Trump’s polling numbers among “strong Republican” voters, from 91 per cent in June to 79 per cent.

That movement isn’t evident in the betting markets, with Ladbroke’s odds of Trump being impeached or resigning before 2020 holding firm at 11/10 — an implied probability of 48 per cent.

“The truth of the matter is that there hasn’t been any movement in the odds in the last few days”, said a Ladbrokes spokeswoman.

Indeed, back in July the odds of Trump leaving office before the end of his first term were 8/11 — an implied probability of 58 per cent — so perhaps the recent shift away from the scandal of his links to the Kremlin has convinced the public this is an ordeal we’re going to have to see through to the bitter end after all.

 

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