OPINION - Nato’s alliance against Russia is starting to crack

“How many divisions has the Pope got?” Stalin demanded. Today the same question should be asked about Nato. But this time the divisions are diplomatic and political, and not measured in military muscle.

Leading Nato powers have pledged to send main battle tanks to bolster Ukraine’s forces against any breakthrough by any new Russian offensive this spring, and to begin to mount a concerted, mobile counter-attack.

Altogether, the Ukraine command expects to get up to 300 main battle tanks from Nato and other allies.

It is going to take time to train crews, get ammunition and spares resupply chains established. They are not expected to appear on the lines around Donbas till the back end of March at the earliest.

To make them really effective, they have to be part of a combined arms plan — this means moving with armoured infantry, close artillery and air support, which includes rockets and attack helicopters.

Germany, Britain and the US have turned down the option of supplying strike aircraft. It is argued that heavy weaponry and systems “that could strike into Russia” must be eschewed for fear that an escalation would provoke Moscow further.

In the refined ratiocinations and calculations of diplomacy this has a certain logic. But in terms of military realism, it is dangerous sophistry. It risks depriving Ukraine’s commander of essential tools if they are to stay in the fight, to survive, let alone contemplate winning.

Look closely and you begin to see the divisions and cracks in the alliance. Chancellor Scholz of Germany urges restraint, suggesting Berlin opens up a line of negotiation with Moscow. President Erdogan of Turkey claims the same role for himself, as do the Pentagon and State in Washington. Where does President Zelensky come in? Are they planning to ignore him as Trump and Biden ignored Ashraf Ghani, the elected president of Afghanistan, when their botched diplomacy let the Taliban into Kabul?

In the last week Italy negotiated huge gas and energy development deals with Libya and Algeria — both clients and friends of Putin’s Russia. It’s a daring piece of post-Ukraine war planning, an adroit piece of self-service diplomacy.