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Pakistan fears coronavirus surge as preparations begin for upcoming religious holidays

A man wears a protective mask as he sells cows for the upcoming Eid Al Adha sacrifice, at the cattle market - Reuters
A man wears a protective mask as he sells cows for the upcoming Eid Al Adha sacrifice, at the cattle market - Reuters
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Pakistan faces a new surge in coronavirus cases from two upcoming religious holidays unless people pay better attention to distancing precautions, health officials fear.

The forthcoming Eid ul-Adha and Muharram festivities risk being a rerun of May's end of Ramadan celebrations which were blamed for supercharging the outbreak during June.

Both Pakistan's reported cases and deaths from Covid-19 accelerated last month in the country of 220 million, only to unexpectedly slip back in July.

Imran Khan's government has claimed the falling cases are proof that its strategy of “smart lockdowns” on virus-hit neighbourhoods is working. Yet the opposition has accused them of cutting testing to suppress the numbers and international health officials say testing is so low that it is difficult to tell how the pandemic is proceeding in the country.

Health officials fear that crowded livestock markets where Pakistanis buy animals for slaughter during Eid ul-Adha will become hotbeds of infection. Celebratory gatherings during the holiday itself are also a risk.

Careless socialising during Eid ul-Fitr at the end of May has been blamed for large numbers of cases in June. Politicians including Mr Khan have repeatedly chided Pakistanis for taking little heed of distancing restrictions and the former cricketer has called on them to be careful in the forthcoming holidays.

“The situation is now relatively under control, but any mistake can reverse it quickly, as happened following Eid ul-Fitr,” said Muhammad Usman, healthcare secretary in Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province.

He called on people “to be very very careful, otherwise things can quickly spin out of hand”, Dawn newspaper reported.

Dr Mahmood Shaukat, of the province's coronavirus advisory group, said the situation appeared under control.

“However, fears are growing that these signs could denigrate if people throw caution to the wind during Eid ul-Adha and Muharram, as happened after Eid ul-Fitr when the numbers skyrocketed within days.

“Apart from these two religious events, hospital outpatient departments are being reopened, which could cause a rush to these facilities. This is why the government is trying to lay extra stress on coronavirus protocols, which essentially remain the same – masks, social distancing, frequent washing of hands and avoiding travel,” he told a press conference.

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Daily case totals have fallen from around 5,000 or 6,000 in mid-June to below 3,000 in recent days. Deaths have also fallen. Yet testing has dropped by at least a quarter.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the leader of the opposition Pakistan People's Party earlier this week said: "If tests were reduced then obviously the number of cases would also shrink. Federal ministers were making a mockery of themselves by saying that the graph [of cases] was going down."

Only a few weeks ago modelling was showing that Pakistan would not reach its peak until at least the end of July. Ministers now say it is not only cases that have fallen, but also hospital admissions and the numbers of patients in intensive care.

Some international health officials privately doubt the effectiveness of the country's smart lockdowns, where residents are supposed to be sealed in for up to 14 days, but in reality can still often move in and out.

“You can fudge the numbers of tests but not recording hospital admissions,” said one.

“This trend is against all the models that I have seen so far. We should be heading towards our peak transmission period,” said one.

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