Patrick Cockburn: Losing Raqqa will not stop IS from being a creature of war

The capture of Raqqa after a four-month siege means that the Caliphate declared by Islamic State three years ago has been largely destroyed.

At its peak, it ruled an area in western Iraq and eastern Syria the size of Great Britain and with a population of five or six million. It was this murderous quasi-state with an administration, money and a powerful army that made IS so much more dangerous than other terrorist movements.

The fall of Raqqa closely following the capture of Mosul in July puts IS on the road to defeat, but the determination it showed in defending the two cities is ominous. IS commanders will have known they were bound to lose because they were outnumbered and outgunned.

Aware of this, they long ago set up alternative hideouts and caches of weapons and food in the vast deserts between Iraq and Syria. Here they hope to survive and wait for a time when the political and military situation turns in their favour. They did this in Iraq 10 years ago when they were being hunted down by 150,000 American troops and their Arab allies.

IS will try to return but it may not succeed because it has lost the advantage of surprise. But, battered though it is and hemmed in by enemies on every side, it still has certain strengths.

Its leader Abu Baqr al-Baghdadi is apparently alive going by his latest message and will continue to be an inspiration to his remaining followers. Proof that he is dead would be a serious blow to those who still believe in his message.

The main reason why IS has been defeated is that it considered the whole world to be its enemy, with the result that it was attacked on multiple fronts by countries which do not normally cooperate with each other such the US and Iran.

This de facto coalition used its immense firepower to inflict devastating casualties on IS, but it is breaking up as states pursue their own interests on the assumption that IS is finished.

Any announcement of victory over IS is premature and could be dangerously misleading: IS will look to exploit quarrels among the victors, and in Iraq this is already beginning to happen as the Kurds confront the central government in Baghdad.

IS is a creature of war and it is only when the wars end in Syria and Iraq that IS will no longer find fertile soil in which to grow and flourish. The same is true of the rest of the Middle East and North Africa where chaos promotes the growth of militarised cults like IS.

Patrick Cockburn is the author of The Age of Jihad: Islamic State and the Great War for the Middle East by Patrick Cockburn, Verso, £12.99.