When will Pennsylvania declare its election result?

People drop off their ballots in Doylestown, Pennsylvania
People drop off their ballots in Doylestown, Pennsylvania - Hannah Beier/Getty Images North America

Pennsylvania is arguably the most important individual race in the election, offering both candidates a pathway to the 270 electoral college votes needed to secure the White House.

Both the Democrats and Republicans have blanketed the Keystone State in the lead up to election day, making around 50 pit stops over the past three months – the most of any of the seven key swing states.

The race is on a knife edge, with Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by an average of 0.34 per cent, according to Telegraph polling data.

And with 19 electoral college votes up for grabs – the most of any battleground state – whoever wins Pennsylvania will have the clearest path to the White House.

How much can early voting data tell us?

Ahead of election night, early voting may provide some indication of which way Pennsylvania is expected to tilt.

Although registered Democrats traditionally hold a narrow advantage when it comes to early voting, the number of Republicans casting their ballots early has surged across Pennsylvania and other swing states, in a potential boost for Trump.

What time are the exit polls released?

One of the earliest indications for who will win on the night will be the exit poll.

However, not all of its projections will be released immediately by TV networks, even after polls have closed and the votes that will decide the next president are being tallied.

Pennsylvania is also one of seven states – two of which are swing states – that do not allow election workers to begin processing absentee or mail ballots until after 7am on election day.

As a result, election workers must count these ballots at the same time as polls open, which can cause delays in unofficial results being available.

When will Pennsylvania declare its result?

The official Pennsylvania state website will update federal and state election results starting from 8pm on election night.

The state department has warned that “results of some races may not be known on election night” as election officials prioritise making sure each ballot is counted accurately and securely.

Given the closeness of the presidential race, and the state’s experience in recent elections, it is unlikely that Pennsylvania will be called on the night.

What happened in previous years?

Having voted Democrat in every election from 1988 until 2012, the Keystone State turned red in 2016 when Trump bested Hillary Clinton by a margin of just 0.8 per cent.

The state was called for Trump at 1.35am ET the morning after the election, with Trump’s overall victory declared at 2.29am ET.

When Joe Biden re-captured Pennsylvania from Trump in 2020 in a razor tight race, the state was left on tenterhooks for four days.

Because of demands for a recount, it took until 11.25am on the Saturday for media outlets to call the race, and it proved to be the decisive blow that won Mr Biden the White House.

As Mr Biden had already clinched victory in the Blue Wall states of Michigan and Wisconsin, his narrow victory in Pennsylvania pushed him beyond the 270 votes needed to win the presidency.

Despite losing by about 80,000 votes, Trump has continued to claim he won the race in Pennsylvania, and election officials are bracing for further conspiracy theories this year ahead of another anticipated delay.

“That window of time between the polls closing and races being called, I think, has shown to be a real vulnerability, where people seeking to undermine confidence in those results if they’re going to lose have really exploited,” Al Schmidt, Pennsylvania’s top election official, told CBS.