Penny Mordaunt must choose to fight for herself or her party in tonight’s debate

Penny Mordaunt will face Nigel Farage in tonight's general election debate
Penny Mordaunt will face Nigel Farage in tonight's general election debate

Tonight’s seven-way debate might be billed as the first chance to see all of the major parties head to head, but in truth we will all likely be watching The Nigel Farage Show.

And on a day when Rishi Sunak has had to apologise for leaving the D-Day commemorations early, the 90-minute BBC special could resemble a firing squad for Tory representative Penny Mordaunt.

Veterans of political communications believe Ms Mordaunt will be sent out with a mission to get the argument back onto tax, but that Mr Farage and others will hammer her over leadership and defence.

Lee Cain, the former Downing Street communications director who helped prepare Boris Johnson for TV debates, said seven-way debates are “a nightmare for the party in government” because they are attacked from all sides.

He said: “[Ms Mordaunt] will be hoping to get the conversation back onto the message of Labour’s tax plans, but for someone who is so associated with defence she will be attacked on the D-Day row, so it’s going to be a really difficult night for her.”

Ms Mordaunt, Leader of the Commons and briefly the defence secretary under Theresa May, is fighting to keep her Portsmouth North seat, where she has a 15,780 majority.

She will also see tonight’s debate as an opportunity to burnish her credentials as a future Tory leader.

However Mr Farage, the Reform UK leader, is likely to dominate proceedings, as it is his first time taking part in a TV debate during this election.

Unlike the other participants, he has shunned the offer of an autocue for his opening and closing statements, and is used to getting his arguments across on television after presenting his own nightly GB News show for three years.

Mr Cain, founder of the consultancy Charlesbye Strategy, says his tactic will be to “chip away at the Tories”, as the majority of voters he is trying to attract are traditional Conservative voters.

This suggests Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour Party leader, is in for an easy night.

The likelihood of a shouting match between Mr Farage and Ms Mordaunt - with representatives of the Liberal Democrats, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens all expected to attack the Conservatives’ record in Government - will give her a chance to rise above the fray.

Her brief is likely to be to remain calm, measured and statesmanlike, and to let the others kick lumps out of each other while she presents the Tories as the sensible voice in the room.

Another former Conservative adviser said Mr Farage was likely to accuse Mr Sunak of “presiding over a massive influx of people who do not share our values” and to suggest that the Prime Minister “doesn’t even know D-Day is important”.

They suggested that Ms Mordaunt - desperate to distance herself from Mr Sunak’s D-Day blunder - might directly criticise him for leaving France early and say she would have stayed if she had been leader.

The same source suggested that Ms Mordaunt’s best tactic for handling Mr Farage would be to challenge him on the details of his policies.

The source said: “Farage doesn’t like it when people try to drill into the detail of what he is saying, and he can get a bit testy when they do.

“It also won’t help him that Mishal Husain is presenting it, because she seemed to get under his skin when she was interviewing him about his immigration rules on Radio 4 earlier in the week.”

The debate, which starts at 7.30pm on BBC One, could present an opportunity for one of the other participants to break through with the public.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, who is likely to attack Labour, is highly rated by his rivals and a slick media performer largely unknown to the general public.

Daisy Cooper, Deputy Liberal Democrat leader, will also be a fresh face to many viewers who could boost her chances of keeping her St Albans seat and possibly increasing her majority.