Plaid grabs 'historic' pole position in public poll but Reform UK support surges in Wales

Plaid Cymru has edged ahead of Welsh Labour in a Senedd voting intention poll for the first time since 2010. The poll also showed that Reform UK is making rapid gains and is now tied with Labour in second place.

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre (WGC), described the poll as “unprecedented”. Plaid called it an “historic turning point for Wales”, showing the party as the “clear alternative to Labour”.

The snapshot Barn Cymru poll predicts that, were a Senedd election to take place now, Plaid would be ahead by one point with 24% of the vote. Welsh Labour and Reform UK are just behind, both on 23%.

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Reform UK’s polling is significant as it equals the Brexit Party’s highest ever place in the polls, back in 2019. Barn Cymru said many of its voters are switching from the Welsh Conservatives who, despite a one-point gain since the last poll five months ago, slipped to fourth place with a 19% share of the vote.

With just one point currently separating the top three, Dr Larner predicted some horse trading may be needed after the next Senedd election in May 2026. He said: “If the election result is even close to resembling this poll, it will necessitate some form of cooperation between parties in order to form a government.”

Plaid, under the leadership of Rhun ap Iorwerth, believes it now how momentum going into the election. The party cited public concerns over winter fuel allowances, NHS waiting lists and economic woes for Labour’s crumbling support.

A spokesperson said: “If these figures are repeated at the election, Plaid Cymru would become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time ever. Meanwhile, Labour’s support is collapsing, exposing their failure to deliver.” Sign up now for the latest news on the North Wales Live Whatsapp community

In late June, in the run-up to the General Election, Welsh Labour had a four-point lead over Plaid and a nine-point lead over Reform UK. According to the latest poll, the party’s fortunes in Wales have nosedived since Labour’s Westminster victory.

Dr Larner said the trend had been ongoing for a while. He said: “Prior to the General Election in July we observed a growing trend of switching between Labour and Plaid Cymru support in polls, something which continues here: 24% of Labour voters say they will vote for Plaid Cymru in a devolved election.

"Switching has always occurred but this poll adds to the evidence that it is becoming the political preference of a growing number of voters.” Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox

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