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New poll blow for SNP suggests Tories set to take back key heartland seats

Poll suggests Nicola Sturgeon could lose nine seats, including that of her Westminster leader Angus Robertson - © 2017 Bloomberg Finance LP
Poll suggests Nicola Sturgeon could lose nine seats, including that of her Westminster leader Angus Robertson - © 2017 Bloomberg Finance LP

The Conservatives are on course to pick up seven seats in Scotland in the general election, including the constituency held by the SNP's Westminster leader Angus Robertson, according to a new poll.

A projection from the YouGov survey gives the SNP 47 seats, the Tories eight, the Liberal Democrats three and Labour still with only one MP after the June 8 vote.

Among the seats predicted to change hands are Moray, currently held by Mr Robertson, the SNP deputy leader and a prominent performer in the House of Commons, along with Aberdeen South, where Callum McCaig won almost 42 per cent of the vote in 2015.

General Election poll | Predicted seats in Scotland

Mr Robertson has a majority of just over 9,000, but the area was split over the EU referendum last June and voted solidly "No" in the 2014 independence referendum.

The poll is the latest to predict a Tory revival north of the border and suggests the party is set to take back old "heartland" seats in Perthshire, the Borders and the north east of Scotland. Eight seats would be the highest return for the party in Scotland since 1992 when it won 11. In the 1997 election it suffered a wipeout.

In 2015, the SNP took 56 of the 59 seats available, with the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems each picking up just one.The Tories are campaigning on a message of opposing the SNP's bid for a second independence referendum between autumn next year and the spring of 2019. Theresa May has said "now is not the time".

The poll in The Times emerged after Nicola Sturgeon finally admitted she would try to use SNP votes in the general election as a further mandate for a new referendum.

The First Minister previously claimed the election was not about independence for the SNP as it already had a mandate for a new vote, but argued on Thursday that the Nationalists winning more seats and votes than any other party would leave Theresa May with “no basis whatsoever” on which to continue refusing a new vote.

Voting intentions in the poll have the SNP leading on 41 per cent, the Tories on 28 per cent, with Labour at 18 per cent, the Lib Dems on seven per cent, the Greens on three and Ukip on two.

Ruth Davidson - Credit: PA
Poll suggests Ruth Davidson's party poised to win back heartland seats Credit: PA

Earlier this week another poll said Scottish independence had dropped to 40 per cent.

The Kantar Scottish Opinion Monitor also found signs of "weakening" support for independence, with 60 per cent backing staying in the UK.

The latest poll found that on independence, 55 per cent of respondents were opposed and 45 per cent in favour - the same result as the 2014 referendum on breaking-up Britain. It found 42 per cent were in favour of another referendum, with 51 per cent against, and the “don’t knows” accounting for seven per cent.

nicola sturgeon - Credit: Reuters
Poll suggests SNP set lose nine seats Credit: Reuters

The figures suggest the Conservatives will win seats from the SNP in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Perth and North Perthshire, Dumfries and Galloway, the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk seat and East Renfrewshire, while retaining the constituency of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, held by the Scottish Secretary David Mundell.

Ms Sturgeon was due to campaign in East Renfrewshire on Friday, where Kirsten Oswald defeated the then Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy in 2015.

The former campaign director of Better Together during the 2014 independence referendum, Blair McDougall, will contest the seat for Scottish Labour, while Paul Masterton is the Conservative candidate.

Ms Sturgeon criticised the Tory’s “cruel and damaging agenda” and claimed that the more MPs the Conservatives had, the “heavier the price Scotland will pay”.

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