New poll predicts Labour will win Southport and every Merseyside seat in 'landslide victory'

Labour launched its campaign in Southport last month
-Credit: (Image: Colin Lane/Liverpool Echo)


A huge new poll predicts the Labour Party will win every seat on Merseyside at the general election - and will cruise into government with a landslide victory.

Polling group YouGov has launched its first Multi-level Regression and Post-ratification (MRP) poll, which takes into account the different views of certain groups of voters - and then projects the result of every seat in the country.

YouGov's MRP models correctly called both the hung parliament in the 2017 UK general election, the Conservative victory in 2019, as well as last year’s Spanish general election.

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To work out its projection, YouGov uses a large sample of data collected from its panel to discover relationships between people’s characteristics and their answers to the voting intention question.

It then combines these relationships/patterns with information about the characteristics of people living in different seats to construct estimates of how vote intention would look in each constituency if YouGov was able to do very large polls in every constituency.

The poll predicts the Labour Party will win a huge majority at the general election in July 2024 with an estimated 422 of the total of 650 seats.

The poll has the Conservatives way off in second place with just 140 seats - a predicted loss of 225 seats. The Lib Dems are predicted to finish on 48 seats, with the Scottish National Party on 17, the Greens on two and Plaid Cymru on 2.

The poll has Reform UK on zero seats but the field work will have been carried out before today's announcement that Nigel Farage will return as leader and stand for the party in the Clacton seat.

If accurate, these results would give Keir Starmer's Labour Party a landslide majority of 194, larger than even Tony Blair's biggest wins.

Southport candidate Labour candidate Parick Hurley
Southport candidate Labour candidate Parick Hurley -Credit:Colin Lane/Liverpool Echo

YouGov has predicted Labour will win every single seat on Merseyside - including Southport, which the party has never held before.

While seats across Liverpool, Wirral, St Helens, Knowsley and in Bootle and Sefton Central are currently held by Labour and are all described as safe seats for Labour in this latest poll - Southport is regarded as a 'likely' win for Keir Starmer's party.

The projection currently predicts it will be a fairly comfortable win too, with Labour set to gain more than 50% of the vote in the seaside town.

Southport has never been held by Labour since the constituency was first formed in 1885. The seat has only ever been won by the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Party.

But Labour have been gaining ground in Southport in recent elections, breaking up what had become a Lib Dem-Tory marginal. Previous candidate Liz Savage secured second place finishes in both of Mr Moore's election wins of 2017 and 2019.

Ms Savage is not Labour's candidate this time around, with that role given to former Liverpool City Councillor Patrick Hurley. If the YouGov poll is accurate, Mr Hurley is on course to be Labour's first ever Southport MP.

Mr Hurley will challenge for the seat against incumbent Conservative Damien Moore, Green candidate Edwin Black and Erin Harvey from the Liberal Democrats.

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