Predicted Championship final table shows scale of Narcis Pelach's Stoke City task amid Leeds procession & Cardiff doom

Narcis Pelach has taken on a big challenge as Stoke City head coach.
-Credit: (Image: Phil Greig)


There is evident optimism inside the Stoke City camp and fingers crossed in the stands but it is probably no surprise that neutrals, objectively analysing recent data, have the side tracking for a probable bottom half finish in the Championship.

Stoke have finished no higher than 14th in this division since they were relegated from the Premier League in 2018 - 16th, 15th, 14th, 14th, 16th and 17th. And that only tells the story at the end of each season.

They have only been inside the top 10 when they’ve walked off the pitch after 64 of the 285 games they’ve played back at this level – or only a shocking seven of 157 outside of Michael O’Neill’s tenure. Three of those were in the first month of last season before the table settled. Two were in the first month of this season before the table settled. The other two were in December 2018 as the axe sharpened on Gary Rowett.

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So yes, supporters, players, pundits and staff might be quietly confident that Narcis Pelach can mould the squad he has inherited into a team capable of climbing the ladder but you can understand that the boffins at Opta say, at this stage, Stoke’s most likely finish is 18th. They come to that conclusion using underlying statistics which might in part explain why Stoke were ready to change head coach so early in the campaign.

There’s a 7.4 per cent chance, apparently, based on Opta simulating the season thousands of times – but without really being able to take into account changes being implemented by Pelach, that Stoke will end up sixth from bottom. It’s 7.3 per cent for 16th, 7.2 for either 15th or 19th, 7.1 for 14th and falling either way the further you get away from that clump of pretty miserable positions.

There’s a 0.1 per cent chance – it will happen one time in a thousand – that Stoke will sneak into the top two for automatic promotion and a 3.8 per cent chance that they will end up somewhere in the play-off spots. There is a 9.5 per cent chance that they will end up somewhere in the bottom three.

It all illustrates the size of the task confronting Pelach in turning the good ship around – and also the competitiveness of the Championship.

With nine games gone, there aren’t many clubs either being entirely ruled out for promotion or relegation. Sunderland, Sheffield United, Burnley, West Brom, Leeds and Norwich have no or near-negligible chance of going down; only Cardiff are ruled out for a shot at the top six. Indeed, teams are so closely stuck together that Stoke’s most likely finish is 18th but they are 16th in the predicted table.

Leeds have a whopping 37.7 per cent chance of going up as champions or nearly 60 per cent of being in the top two. Sheffield united and Burnley are looking well placed too, with West Brom not far behind. There are struggles ahead, however, for Cardiff, Portsmouth and Queens Park Rangers.

Anyway, there are 37 games to work it out for real and then revisit this to see how close they got in the laboratory.

The percentage chance of teams in the Championship finishing in various positions, according to Opta.
The percentage chance of teams in the Championship finishing in various positions, according to Opta.

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