My predicted grades were way off. It’s time to get real about A-levels

Hunched over on dirty stairs, surrounded by other students either crying or squealing, I struggled to open the envelope because my hands were shaking so much. The page inside listed grades of A, A and B. It took me several long, confused seconds to process that these were my A-level results. Just two years earlier, I’d been told me to expect – and apply to university on the basis of getting – CCD.

The University and College Union (UCU) has this week called for an end to university applications being based on predicted grades. Research by UCL’s Institute of Education back in 2016 found that over three years, 84% of predictions for three A-levels or equivalent had been inaccurate.

In many cases, teachers overpredict results. Yet the study found that students from disadvantaged background are the most likely to have their grades underpredicted. Over the course of three years, 24% of applicants from lower-income households had their results underpredicted.

Predicting grades is obviously a flawed science. In some cases, predictions are made by overworked teachers who have only known the student for a matter of weeks before they make them. Yet for decades, poor predictions have had the power to damage young people’s motivation and stunt their futures. I know from experience that poor predicted grades can work as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many of my friends were, like me, predicted low grades, and in the months that followed I saw them become increasingly disillusioned. Some even dropped out of sixth form, seeing no point in studying for a further 18 months if they weren’t going to get into a good university. It was only thanks to supportive, academic parents, and my own tenacity, that I persevered.

Despite my low predicted grades, I went to the Royal Holloway, University of London open day and fell in love with its grand, beautiful Founder’s Building. Born in Rotherham and raised in Doncaster, I was desperate to experience living and studying under the shadow of such a landmark. Because of my predictions, the admissions team requested I find a teacher to write a letter stating that they believed I could achieve the minimum admissions grades of ABB if I was going to make this my first choice.

I talked to all five of my A-level teachers, but only one agreed to go against what the official predictions stated. There’s a good chance that he set my life on the course it ended up on. Without that letter, that vote of confidence, I wouldn’t have been made a conditional offer by Royal Holloway. Even though I went on to achieve AAB later that year, it would have been too late.

This is particularly problematic for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Young people with huge potential but low predictions stand little chance of serious consideration from top universities, especially when pitted against students from schools that overpredict grades.

Instead, we need to switch to a post-qualification admission system, which is based on real rather than predicted A-level grades. Of a group of 30 countries, including Japan, the US and France, only England, Wales and Northern Ireland use a predicted grades system when it comes to university offers. It is not just backed by UCU, but by the Sutton Trust, a foundation focused on improving social mobility, and by the Association of School and College Leaders.

It’s not the first time this has been on the table. A government review recommended changing to a post-qualification system back in 2004. In 2011, the university admissions service Ucas put forward its own proposals for reforming the system, but dropped them in the face of lack of enthusiasm from universities.

But surely modern technology would allow Ucas to conduct the admissions cycle within a period of weeks if results were released earlier in the summer, and freshers’ first term at university began a couple of weeks later. It would indeed be a big shift for universities and their culture, practices and mindset. But it should be one they are willing to make if they are truly committed to ensuring higher education is accessible to young people from disadvantaged backgrounds.

• Grace Holliday is a freelance journalist