The prize that explains Ukraine’s southern push into Russia’s best defences
The head of Ukraine’s armed forces was surprisingly open about the value of a push south when discussing his military’s next move in December last year.
If his troops could take the southern city of Melitopol, General Valery Zaluzhny said, they could rain fire down on Crimea and sever the land corridor currently held by Russian forces.
“I will simply state the facts. In order to reach the borders of Crimea … we need to cover a distance of 84km to Melitopol,” he told The Economist in a rare interview. “By the way this is enough for us because Melitopol would give us full fire control.”
In the early hours of Thursday morning, the General may have finally made his move.
A heavy assault by Ukrainian forces appeared to be headed towards the town of Tokmak, a key hub on the southern axis and a stepping stone to the city of Melitopol before, eventually, the coast and the Sea of Azov.
But in front of them Russia has laid its fiercest defences.
Obstacle belts with anti-tank ditches, wire and minefields sit in the table-flat plains that lead south.
So-called “dragon’s teeth”, pyramid structures standing about a metre high, have also been placed to bring advancing tanks and other armoured vehicles to a grinding halt.
On Thursday, US officials said that Ukraine’s attack in this direction appears to be a “main thrust” of the counter-offensive. Two others are known to be ongoing, and any of them may be a feint.
Concrete details of the initial clashes in the southern axis are impossible to verify. Ukraine appeared to have made some gains, even according to pro-Russian sources.
But there are also signs of losses. Some drone footage suggests one column of armoured vehicles and tanks met a particularly sticky end.
There are fears, in particular, that Ukraine may have lost two of its new German-made Leopard II tanks on their first forays into the front lines.
However, the counter-offensive may take weeks or months, and officials have long warned of heavy losses as Ukraine probes, pushes – and retreats. The West will have to get used to the sight of its own equipment being destroyed.
A properly trained and integrated military force will move seamlessly from defensive operations (which can be incredibly violent in their own way), through shaping activities designed to lay the best foundations for future progress and into the assault.
Ukraine’s assault should be synchronised: probing attacks here, perhaps even a tactical retreat – that is really a bluff – there, then a full-bloodied and terrifically violent attack somewhere else along the line.
In this sense what we have seen this week may just be part of a longer strategic plan.
But there is also a chance Ukraine is making a dash to the south coast now.
The prize is certainly enticing.
A successful thrust could also allow Ukraine to push further, wheeling westward to isolate Russian troops on the eastern bank of the now-flooded Dnipro in the Kherson region.
Or, troops could swing east toward what is left of Mariupol, the once key port city and gateway to Russia.
Reaching the coast, in any event, would cut Russian forces in two. It would also leave the Crimean Bridge, hit by a massive explosion last year, as the only supply route for Russia to Crimea.
It is worth remembering, too, that the dam explosion this week has cut off the drinking water supply to Crimea, although local authorities say the reservoirs there are full.
The coming weeks may see further attempts by Ukraine to test Russian defences across the 600 mile front line, deploying all its new Nato training and equipment.
For any success, Ukraine has to fight using “combined arms” formations: utilising all military elements to form a single, coherent, balanced and sustainable force. No single weapon system or vehicle will win the day.
Done correctly though, Ukraine will use the Western-donated tanks to form the core of an armoured division to punch through Russian lines.
If Challenger II and German-built Leopard II battle tanks gifted by Poland and Finland could be combined with the armoured infantry fighting vehicles sent by the US, France and Germany, Kyiv’s assault could well be formidable.
Tanks need to be intimately supported by the infantry in vehicles capable of withstanding anything up to a direct hit by artillery or anti-tank weapons. They should preferably be in specially designed fighting vehicles able to blast enemy positions as they close the critical last few hundred metres.
Engineer assets must be immediately to hand, to breach minefields or get the force across rivers that have had bridges blown.
Next, artillery has to be woven into the plan, to cover the flanks and depth targets, preventing the enemy from counter-attacking. The whole performance also needs an umbrella of air defence to stop Russian jets and helicopters from interfering.
As long as Ukraine is able to adopt such “combined arms” warfare, with tanks, infantry, artillery and airpower all working together, it could leave Vladimir Putin’s forces unable to stop the Ukrainian advance.