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Queensland election: Jackie Trad still gets under LNP's skin even as she faces losing seat to Greens

<span>Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP</span>
Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP

The Liberal National party is still using Jackie Trad’s face on its election attack ads – more than five months since the former Queensland deputy premier and treasurer resigned from the state cabinet.

“It is no surprise that a very clever, progressive woman in a position of influence has also scared the hell out of certain people,” one Queensland Labor MP told Guardian Australia.

No member of parliament has unnerved conservatives quite like Trad.

The Courier-Mail has portrayed her as an evil queen and a “wicked witch”. The tabloid – Brisbane’s only daily newspaper – and its columnists have repeatedly complained she was too influential in the Palaszczuk government, her agenda too leftwing.

And the polls show she is likely to lose her inner-city seat of South Brisbane to the Greens.

Related: Shifting sands: Queensland sees red in blue-ribbon seats as election draws near

The election contest in South Brisbane, which is centred on the eclectic community of West End and its high-density neighbours, has become a proxy for the state’s left-leaning and climate-conscious voters to pass judgment on a government that introduced laws to stop broadscale land clearing but also gave a royalties deal to Adani, one pitching itself to some voters as a significant backer of renewable energy and others as the approver of 18 new coalmines.

Labor has pushed through genuine progressive reform in Queensland – legalising abortion, banning gay conversion therapies, promising a vote on voluntary assisted dying. The same government cracked down on climate protesters, backed away from youth detention reforms and recently scrapped a pandemic eviction moratorium.

On that complex legacy hangs the future of one of its most prominent MPs, once considered the likely successor to premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

‘That’s not very West End’

There are barely any election signs among the colourful shopfronts of Boundary Street at West End.

“We did have some posters up in the window [but took them down again] after a couple of people asked some questions,” says Katy Stoole, who runs a boutique on nearby Vulture Street.

“It’s just not a conversation I want to have in the shop. I think that sort of thing can alienate some people.”

West End is often held up as the sort of “inner-city elite” community of anti-development almond milk latte drinkers that rural politicians, newspaper columnists (and ABC executives) use to promote “us and them” narratives.

In reality, South Brisbane has gentrified in areas but not in others. There are clusters of apartments at South Bank and Highgate Hill, and the seat is a genuinely diverse mix of professionals and people living in crisis accommodation, students, young families and those who have lived in the area for generations.

“The thing that’s quite nice about it is that it hasn’t gentrified too much – there’s still a real mix of people,” says Stoole.

Related: Queensland election: Labor pledges to allow vote on voluntary assisted dying

“I think if it all became high-rise then it wouldn’t be interesting, it could be anywhere in the world. To keep the mix of people, the different houses, the different properties is a good thing.”

Another local, Michael Huynh, said he thought people in the community were often proudly political, but that this election had been uncomfortable for some.

“I think a lot of people think they could judged for being one way or the other. That’s not very West End really.”

The Green vote in South Brisbane roughly doubled from 2012 to 2017. Newspoll has the leftwing party polling 39% of the primary vote and 54.5% after preferences (an 8% swing away from Labor).

The last election in 2017 was dominated by similar narratives – that Trad was in danger of losing her seat to the Greens candidate, Amy MacMahon. But Trad survived comfortably, partly thanks to preferences from LNP voters.

Holding your nose and voting Labor isn’t going to work

Greens candidate Amy MacMahon

This time the LNP is advising voters to direct preferences to the Greens – a deliberate ploy to see Trad voted out.

“[Trad] is a greener green than the Greens,” the LNP candidate, Clem Grehan, said during a debate last week.

“If you ask all of the people outside Brisbane who is the politician they would like to see leave or get thrown out of the Queensland parliament … they will tell you that Jackie Trad is the one they want to see go.”

The LNP’s decision to boost the chances of the Greens in a tight election, and the real prospect of a hung parliament, has focused local debate on which candidate is the most pragmatic choice. Should voters help Labor towards a majority or boost the Greens’ chances of holding the balance of power?

The tipping point for voters

“I’ve had so many conversations with people who said ‘I gave Labor another chance in 2017’ but what we’ve seen since then has been a lurch to the right,” says MacMahon, who is running again for the Greens.

“What we’ve seen from this Labor government is the tipping point for people [and that occurred] when Jackie Trad was treasurer and deputy premier. They say, ‘This time I can’t vote for Labor, because of their track record on housing, because of their track record on climate.’ ”

Does MacMahon feel comfortable that her candidacy hinges on blocking a progressive woman – with help from conservatives – from returning to the Labor caucus?

Related: Queensland election: seats to watch as parties play a game of electoral chess

“For me this is about a broader political system, more so than any particular candidate,” she says.

“Jackie Trad happens to be a lightning rod for the Labor party that has really let people down, and a lightning rod for the political establishment in many ways. People feel that disappointment really palpably, they feel how they’ve been let down by Labor.

“I think the lesson here … is that a single MP doesn’t change Labor from the inside. Holding your nose and voting Labor isn’t going to work. This is the most progressive seat in Queensland and if the Greens don’t win here it will be a signal to Labor they can keep doing what they’re doing.”

MacMahon said people in South Brisbane were not so different from those in Townsville.

“They’ve seen rapid change they haven’t had control over. People are struggling to pay their rents and mortgages. On Wednesday afternoon in the middle of West End, there’s people lining up to get food packets.”

Voters weighing things up, says Trad

Trad says voters in South Brisbane are “weighing up two considerations”.

“Firstly, the power they have in determining whether or not we’ll have a Labor government governing in its own right, and that can only happen if Labor retains the seat of South Brisbane,” she says.

“The second issue … is whether or not South Brisbane gets to have a voice in that government, or have a voice from the crossbench.

“There’s been a very transparent and ruthlessly tactical decision made by conservative forces in Queensland … There’s a reason why they are all on the same page when it all comes to preferencing the Greens above me in South Brisbane: that is because they want an LNP government, and they want an inexperienced voice on the crossbench.”

Trad had been the leader of Labor’s left faction and – in some of her colleagues’ eyes – an effective co-premier who managed the grunt work of government and the parliamentary agenda.

Her star has fallen somewhat in the past two years amid two separate complaints by the LNP to the Crime and Corruption Commission. Trad resigned from the cabinet in May when the CCC announced it would investigate claims she interfered in the recruitment of a school principal. She was cleared of wrongdoing although questions remain about her judgment.

Greens’ policies are 'frankly la la land stuff'

Jackie Trad

She says the “Get Trad” tactic from the LNP has been “a simplistic assassination strategy” aiming to deliver a “Frankenstein parliament”.

Would she feel a sense of unfairness to lose the seat to the Greens having been so consistently and nastily attacked by conservatives?

“If you’re asking me would I be disappointed if I didn’t win the election, of course I’d be disappointed,” she says. “I’ve worked hard for my seat; I’ve worked hard for my community to really respond to the issues we’re facing.

“At the end of the day, I think the thing that will be the most anxiety for my community is if an LNP government gets elected.”

Greens say they can work with Labor

The Greens hope to take four – possibly more – seats in inner Brisbane. In addition to Maiwar, which they hold, the party is confident in South Brisbane, and believes it also has a strong chance in the CBD seat of McConnell and the inner-north electorate of Cooper.

The Greens have sought to push the argument they can work with Labor in a minority government – citing the ACT arrangement and the recent election result there as proof the parties can work effectively. Its policy agenda includes a proposal to increase mining royalties to raise $55bn and fund a range of social programs.

“What we know is that our messages are actually cutting through; when we get the chance to speak to everyday Queenslanders we know these policies are popular,” MacMahon says.

“They speak to everyday needs, their experiences within a broader economic system.

“The Labor party have really backed themselves into a corner, with no new ideas about how we’re going to be creating jobs, creating prosperity, the high levels of unemployment we’ve got in our regions.”

Trad says the Greens’ policies are “frankly la la land stuff”.

“Policy is very important, but it’s only as important as its ability to be realised,” she says.

“I’ve seen [the Greens] take a lot of credit for the things other political parties have done. I’ve seen them take a lot of credit for the work of women. Their policies sound good, but I think that it’s all fantasy to tell you the truth.

“Change is hard, change is difficult. You need to get people to the table. You need to find a pathway forward; there needs to be concessions. I just think they have no idea what they’re going on about.”