‘Quietly confident’: SNP talk up chances in Jo Swinson's seat

Senior Liberal Democrats have dismissed as mischief-making suggestions that the party leader, Jo Swinson, is on a “shoogly peg” in her own seat of East Dunbartonshire, as the SNP work flat-out to consolidate their strong showing in the EU elections in this strongly remain constituency.

At a rally in Edinburgh on Thursday evening, Scottish Lib Dem activists were in buoyant mood – perhaps thanks to more modest expectation management north of the border.

Criticisms of the stuttering campaign were far in the background as cheery supporters talked up potential gains from the SNP in North East Fife and Ross, Skye and Lochaber, currently held by the nationalists’ Westminster leader, Ian Blackford. Both seats were previously held by Lib Dem leaders – Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy – and would be totemic wins for the party.

But while it’s clear that activists from opposing parties take similar delight in talking up the rumours about Swinson, the SNP have an energetic and locally visible challenger in Amy Callaghan, who at 27 is two years older than Swinson was when she was first elected MP for the constituency in 2005.

The SNP are hoping that this largely affluent constituency, which attracts Glasgow’s urban middle classes with its high performing schools and green spaces, contains the kind of middle-class Scots who voted no to independence in 2014 but have become increasingly indy-curious as their disgust at Westminster’s handling of Brexit grows.

Meanwhile, there are mutterings from some East Dunbartonshire Lib Dems that Swinson’s local campaign has been chaotic, and frustration that – inevitably given her leadership role – she has not been as present in the constituency as during previous elections.

Swinson was unable to attend the only hustings last week, for example, citing “national business”. At the start of the campaign, it was assumed that Swinson’s appeal to Tory remainers, in addition to her base, would carry her through comfortably; now the latest YouGov polling suggests a Lib Dem hold but with a significantly reduced majority.

While dismissing any concerns about Swinson’s own position, senior Scottish Lib Dems argue that the party’s campaign message fits Scotland especially well.

Alex Cole-Hamilton, MSP for Edinburgh Western and the party’s Scottish election coordinator, explains: “The Lib Dems are the only party that stands where the majority of Scots stand [in terms of their rejection in two referendums of both independence and Brexit]. We’re also seeing a huge amount of tactical voting from previous Conservatives and Labour voters who prefer our message on the EU and independence.” Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a second referendum in 2020, has “concentrated people’s minds”, he adds.

With one eye on the next Holyrood elections, activists also report gaining ground in the Borders and north east, both traditionally liberal areas. Polling in the Times Scotland on Friday indicates no gains for the Lib Dems in Scotland, but suggests that they could more than double their presence in the Scottish parliament in 2021.

Around the constituency, where Swinson’s personal popularity should arguably be highest, complaints about her media performances are certainly vociferous, but for every person who complains about her tone of voice, there’s another who commends her as a responsive politician who keeps in touch with her constituents. There’s no doubt that there is an undercurrent of sexism to some of the responses to Swinson nationally, but it’s striking here how many women find her style jarring.

Out canvassing with Callaghan in the neat residential streets of Kirkintilloch, even Lib Dem voters spontaneously bring up Swinson’s part in the Conservative coalition, though they also challenge Callaghan on the SNP’s domestic record on heath and education. Nobody mentions the SNP election leaflet accusing Swinson of hypocrisy over fracking, which the Lib Dem leader won a court order against last week, and which the SNP are still considering appealing.

Callaghan, who became engaged in politics during the 2014 referendum, says: “I am quietly confident that voters here are rejecting what she stands for, whether that’s her support for austerity during the coalition years or saying she would push the nuclear button”.

Shopping in Milngavie, 76-year-old Susan Neilson says that the possibility of a second independence referendum pushed her to vote for Swinson again, but that she has done so – already by postal vote – with reservations.

“Every time I hear Jo Swinson on the radio she seems to get more and more irritating. I am disappointed because she’s been an extremely good constituency MP, but she has totally failed to win me over as leader. I think she’s on a steep learning curve but I couldn’t be bothered with her claiming to be prime minister or revoking article 50.”