Yahoo News Regular 'circuit-breaker' national lockdowns could help control Covid-19, says Sage member
Regular short "circuit-breaker" lockdowns could help the Government manage Covid-19 outbreaks in the UK, a top Government scientific advisor has said.
Coronavirus infections have continued to rise sharply in the UK in recent weeks.
This has prompted warnings that the country could soon see up to 200 deaths from the virus each day.
The Government was reportedly considering a costly two-week "circuit-breaker" lockdown for the whole country earlier this week, but decided on lighter measures like a 10pm curfew for pubs and restaurants.
About a quarter of people in the UK are already under some form of added local coronavirus restrictions, with the Welsh council areas of Neath Port Talbot, Torfaen and Vale of Glamorgan the latest to be put under local lockdown.
But John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said that repeated "mini-lockdowns" could help bring cases down fast.
"You replace two weeks of exponential growth with two weeks of a decline in cases," he told the Observer.
"This can have a big effect on the total number of cases, particularly if it is implemented shortly after the epidemic starts to grow.
“To maximise the effect you also need longer-term measures to slow growth – perhaps along the lines of what Scotland has done.
"It is of course possible to do more than one circuit breaker – perhaps one now and one around half term.
"This could help reduce cases and deaths and – as the measures are short-lived and can be planned for – potentially limit the impact on the economy.”
It comes as evidence grows that the virus is spreading among elderly and vulnerable people, according to research by scientists at Loughborough University.
Analysing official data, policy and strategy researcher Duncan Robertson found that there are 23 Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people in their 60s, compared to eight per 100,000 at the end of August.
There are 22 cases per 100,000 people over 80, he found, versus from nine at the end of August.
He told the Observer: "It is vitally important that infections within older age groups are minimised.
"Without a functioning test-and-trace system, people are less able to be tested, and their contacts are less likely to be traced, which allows the epidemic to spread throughout the population, including to vulnerable groups.”
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