Results: Catena Media plc Delivered A Surprise Loss And Now Analysts Have New Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Catena Media plc (STO:CTM) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to kr33.68 in the past week. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of €0.18 per share on revenues of €103m, even though analysts had been expecting a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Catena Media

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Catena Media's dual analysts is for revenues of €115.7m in 2020, which would reflect a meaningful 13% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Catena Media forecast to report a statutory profit of €0.47 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of €117.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.49 in 2020. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at €5.89, with analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future.

Zooming out to look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up both against past performance, and against industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Catena Media's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 13% increase next year well below the historical 40%p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the market with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.5% next year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still thinkCatena Media will grow faster than the wider market.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with analysts still expecting the business to grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at €5.89, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2022, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Catena Media's balance sheet, and whether we think Catena Media is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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