The return of Donald Trump has sealed Justin Trudeau’s fate
Following Donald Trump’s impressive victory over Kamala Harris, Americans are preparing for the 45th president to become the 47th. World leaders will be doing the same, not least Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau. His instinct will be to use the return of Trump as a springboard to save his flailing career. This time, however, it’s not going to work.
Trudeau’s mediocre and ineffective leadership has made him an international laughing stock. The list of his blunders just keeps growing. Three past instances of wearing blackface. Two ethics violations. Public spats with female MPs and ministers. Spending taxpayer dollars like a drunken sailor. Allegations of Chinese election interference in the 2019 and 2021 elections. The crippling national carbon tax. Surfing with his family in Tofino, British Columbia during the first National Truth and Reconciliation Day. The Freedom Convoy and Emergencies Act. Speaking out of both sides of his mouth about Israel and the Middle East. Allowing a Nazi to be honoured in Parliament. Icy relations with China, India and with two US presidents, Trump and Joe Biden.
So it is little wonder that Trudeau’s Liberal government has slowly been falling apart. His party has mostly been behind in the polls since Pierre Poilievre became Conservative Party leader in September 2022 – in some cases by as much as 20 points. All indications are that Trudeau will lose the federal elections next year in a landslide.
So how has he remained Canada’s PM? The luck of fools, plain and simple. Previous Conservative leaders struggled during election campaigns, which enabled Trudeau to stay in power with minority governments. A supply and confidence agreement with the NDP, Canada’s socialist alternative, between March 2022 to September 2024 kept the Liberals afloat for longer than expected. Canada’s progressive parties have been unwilling to bring down Trudeau and clear the path for Poilievre to become prime minister.
Now, Trudeau and his ever-declining number of Liberal loyalists are clinging on to a new lifeline: Trump. They seem to believe that the president-elect’s new administration will work to their advantage. Trudeau will become the white knight of progressive politics once more, and a beacon of light in a dark world.
What Trudeau & Co don’t seem to understand is that the political lights have been off for years, and the electric company, in the form of Canadian voters, has no interest in turning them back on again.
Angus Reid’s Trudeau Tracker placed him at a 30 per cent approval rate in September, with his disapproval rate at 65 per cent. Ipsos showed a similar number, with 67 per cent dissatisfied. Meanwhile, Leger’s November 2024 survey had Trudeau up to 68 per cent disapproval, with only 27 per cent approval – and a meagre 5 per cent claiming they were “very satisfied” with the current government.
Dwindling fortunes
Trump’s second presidential term won’t change Trudeau’s dwindling political fortunes.
Liberals have sought to compare Poilievre to the president-elect, as a way of tarnishing his image. But it’s clearly had no political effect. Poilievre’s political ideology, policies and principles are distinctive from those of the president-elect. Yes, he’s successfully used some populist language and themes, and focused on rebuilding ties with the working class, like former British prime minister Boris Johnson and former Australian prime minister Scott Morrison before him. But there’s a fine line between inspiration and emulation.
Trudeau cannot get away from the fact that his political career has been marked by constant failure. It’s hurt the Liberal government and political brand, too. A Nanos Research poll conducted between 4-6 November had Trudeau down to 11 per cent as the best choice to lead the Liberals among possible top candidates. Who finished first? None of the above at 26 per cent.
This perception isn’t going to change during the second Trump administration.
Trudeau’s progressive policies are out of vogue in Canada and the US. His weak, timid leadership will further crumble against Trump’s vision to make America great again. He’ll surely struggle to prevent the significant tariffs Trump has threatened from coming to Canada. And, while the Trudeau Liberals finally reversed course and slowed down massive immigration levels, it’s unclear how his government’s ineffective border security positions will prevent the possible exodus of migrants from the US to Canada before the Trump White House deports them.
Trump’s victory in the US has sealed Trudeau’s fate in Canada. The sooner the Canadian PM realises this, the better.
Michael Taube, a columnist for the National Post, Troy Media and Loonie Politics, was a speech-writer for former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper