Rugby World Cup 2019: Guardian writers’ predictions

Who will win the World Cup?

Rob Kitson South Africa, unless they are flattened in the final by a free-wheeling England team boasting even more dynamic power. The side that hits hardest for longest – with and without the ball – will ultimately prevail.

Ben Ryan England are genuine contenders but I can’t see past the All Blacks although Beauden Barrett needs to avoid the Kiwi World Cup fly-half curse. In a parallel universe, Mosese Rauluni and Nicky Little return after a 12-year hiatus at half backs for Fiji and they edge a formidable Namibia in the final.

Nick Evans Despite injuries, form of some senior players and a belief from everyone outside New Zealand that they are in decline, the All Blacks are still in the box seat to three-peat the World Cup.

Andy Bull Given the form the smart answer is South Africa, so my head’s annoyed with my heart for persuading me to commit to this in print but I just wonder if the Welsh may pull it off.

Gerard Meagher New Zealand. I have a feeling they may lose to South Africa on the tournament’s first Saturday but end up exacting revenge back in Yokohoma 42 days later.

Paul Rees New Zealand, ahead of England and South Africa. With the ball-in-play time expected to be high and humidity a factor, they are supremely fit opportunists, menacing when questioned.

Claire Tolley New Zealand on paper, just about, simply because they are best equipped to do so. But, frankly, picking a winner is like trying to pin a tail on a moving donkey.

Related: Humidity to home heroics: five things to look out for at the Rugby World Cup | Ben Ryan

Who are the dark horses?

RK Wales. The rugby fates were cruel in 2011 when they could have made the final. Anyone writing off Warren Gatland and his durable players before a knock-out showdown against England is ignoring their World Cup history.

BR Japan. At home. On form. Better than their 2015 side. Beware Ireland and Scotland.

NE Although Australia traditionally remain a big side they have been widely written off but the Wallabies have a habit of turning up at World Cups. Three performances such as that in Perth against New Zealand could see them lift the cup.

AB After the four years they’ve had, Australia are well back in the betting. Michael Cheika is an expert at pulling a team together over the course of a tournament.

GM France have such firepower among their backs and raw power up front that stringing a run to at least the semi-finals is not inconceivable. Fabien Galthié appears to be making a positive impact too.

PR Wales, who are often judged on style rather than substance, and Scotland, whose counterattacking game should suit the conditions, although rain is forecast ahead of their opener against Ireland.

CT When there’s no favourite and a tightly-bunched set of rivals is anyone a dark horse? Wales, possibly, if a team that was world No 1 a few weeks ago can be called that.

Who will be the star player?

RK Semi Radradra (Fiji). Do not be surprised if Fiji give Australia a scare on the opening weekend. Either way, the powerful Radradra has all the tools to be the most lethal midfield ball-carrier in the tournament.

BR Three Fijian back-rowers – Peceli Yato, Semi Kunatani & Bill Mata. Container Office.

NE Damian Penaud from France is a quality wing who has pace, power and a slipperiness about him. Expect him to score a lot of tries.

AB Springbok wing Cheslin Kolbe, short, squat, but whip smart and sharp, with the best step in the game, a welcome reminder that even today size isn’t everything.

GM Handré Pollard. The Springbok fly-half has everything in his armoury the complete modern-day No 10 would want. South Africa are well fancied for the tournament but not if Pollard goes down early.

PR Injuries and red cards are likely to be factors, but Beauden Barrett if New Zealand are to win. Maro Itoje, Makazole Mapimpi and James Ryan to polish their reputations.

CT High hopes of someone such as Fiji’s Semi Radradra stunning everyone while given the pool lineup, think heaps of visibility will go to the All Blacks’ Sevu Reece or Springbok back-row Pieter-Steph Du Toit.

Who will be the biggest flop?

RK New Zealand? Just kidding, but there is bound to be a grim-faced inquest should they miss out on a third straight World Cup title. This is not, relatively speaking, a vintage All Black pack and their opponents are improving.

BR I hate to say it but Ireland. Can’t see them going past the quarters.

NE Hard one this. One of either Ireland or Scotland if Japan end up getting out of the pool, or Argentina. Take your pick.

AB Apart from all of us making these predictions? For all their talented young players France have the air of a side who might blow up spectacularly in the group stages.

GM Canada have made the quarter-finals only once, in 1991, so it may be harsh to suggest they will flop but they are at their lowest ebb and only squeezed through by beating Hong Kong. In the same pool as New Zealand and South Africa, we could see a new record points margin.

PR France, if they look to 2023 rather than now, or Australia, who for all their victory over New Zealand in the summer, have been brittle since the 2015 final.

CT Not who, but what. A proper tier two challenge, sadly. Happy to have egg on my face after a few days but I can’t quite see anyone reaching the knockout stages.

How far will the home nations go?

RK At least two should reach the semis, injuries and typhoons permitting. Given Ireland, Wales and England are all guided by Kiwi or Australian head coaches, however, the old north-south battle lines are blurred these days.

BR I think England could very well play Wales in the quarters so only one home nation to go through to semis. Others to fall before that.

Related: The Breakdown | New Zealand have been fallible in World Cup years before – and won

NE England to lose to New Zealand in the semi-finals, Wales to make it to the last four as well, Ireland and Scotland to fall one hurdle earlier in the last eight.

AB Further than they did in 2015, for sure. England and Wales should both make the semi-finals, beyond that it all feels too close to call.

GM England to reach the semis before familiar failings return, Wales and Ireland to go out in the quarter-finals and Scotland to go out in the pool stages, going down in a decider against Japan.

PR At least three in the quarter-finals, probably four; two in the semis.

CT One or two to reach the semi-finals depending on whether England or Wales play each other. Not sure mentally if they can get past that hurdle to the final.

Who will surprise us?

RK Aside from Fiji, the hosts Japan will be more awkward opponents than many expect. France are bound to have at least one irresistible half of rugby in them and, off the field, cosy European assumptions will be tested on an hourly basis.

BR Possibly a typhoon. Under RWC regulations if a group game has to be cancelled it’s deemed a 0-0 draw. Spanner. Works.

NE I’m looking forward to seeing Fiji play in the warm conditions of Japan. They are a very dangerous team who could scare both Wales and Australia.

AB Japan, even though we’ve all been forewarned by that match against the Springboks four years ago. The big beasts in their group, Ireland and Scotland, both look a little vulnerable.

GM It would be a pleasant surprise if World Rugby shows transparency over controversial decisions and does so as a priority, with coaches also displaying restraint but that feels like wishful thinking.

PR Japan will dream and it could come down to their final group match against Scotland, and Fiji will be a handful for Australia and Wales having worked on their discipline.

CT France. Which is probably a surprise to read for a start but they’ve been in camp for months unlike during other tournaments, so they will be better than we think. I still think they may pip Argentina in their opening match.

I can’t wait for ...

RK The invitation from Eddie Jones to share a few relaxed beers and join his squad for a spot of karaoke. If the top teams spend the first Asian-hosted Rugby World Cup entirely cocooned in their hotel rooms the whole sport will have missed a massive trick.

BR Upsets. The game needs a bigger top table and maybe, just maybe, RWC 2019 is going to finally see that. We live in hope.

NE I’m not exactly waiting for it but I have a feeling with the tackle and ruck laws as they are, a red card could have a massive bearing in a big game for a big team. Keep everything crossed it isn’t your team.

AB Japan v Russia, the very first game. Despite everything you’ve just read I’ve absolutely no idea what’s going to unfold in the next seven weeks, no one does. Finding out is the fun part.

GM The knockout stages. If there is always a touch of inevitability about the pool stages – give or take the odd shock – this year there is likely to be a genuine case for all quarter-finalists going on and winning the final.

PR A referee to crack down on encroachment behind. It’s time to make defences sweat.

CT New Zealand v South Africa on the opening weekend; learning some of the tales less told from the smaller nations.