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Russia faces defence dilemma as it braces for 'major Ukrainian counter offensive'

Ukrainian soldiers on the Donbas front-line, as Russia prepares for a possible counter-offensive - Anadolu Agency/Anadolu
Ukrainian soldiers on the Donbas front-line, as Russia prepares for a possible counter-offensive - Anadolu Agency/Anadolu

Russia is facing a “dilemma” over where Ukraine will launch an anticipated “major counteroffensive” as it divides its efforts across two locations, the British Ministry of Defence has said.

The intelligence report highlights a general shift in posture by Russian forces from offensive to defensive across the frontline in Ukraine, except around Bakhmut in Donbas.

“The way Russia has worked on improving defences suggests commanders are highly likely preoccupied with the potential for major Ukrainian offensive action,” the report said.

The last major Ukrainian offensive was in November when Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces recaptured Kherson city.

Military analysts have said that Ukrainian commanders may have wanted to build up a supply of hi-tech weapons from their Western backers before launching another offensive.

Ukrainian offensives 'to resume soon'

Now, British intelligence has suggested that Ukrainian offensives will soon resume.

According to the MoD, Russian commanders were focused on building defences around Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine where a breakthrough would threaten supply lines between Rostov in Russia and occupied Crimea, and also in Luhansk, in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas which the Kremlin has pledged to hold at all costs.

“Deciding which of these threats to prioritise countering is likely one of the central dilemmas for Russian operational planners,” the British Ministry of Defence said.

Although Russian forces have adopted defensive tactics along the frontline in Ukraine, they have been on the offensive in Bakhmut since August.

And Russian online sources said that Russian soldiers were now close to capturing the town of Soledar which some analysts have said is important for the battle for Bakhmut.

“The situation in Soledar is close to critical for Ukrainian formations,” said Rybar, the Kremlin-linked military blogger with more than one million subscribers.

“The Russian armed forces have broken through the first and second lines of defence, and the battle formations of the third are under threat.”

Ukrainian officials have denied this and Ukrainian soldiers have posted videos from parts of Soledar to show that they still control them.

Around 70,000 people used to live in Bakhmut before Russia invaded Ukraine. Western analysts have said that the town holds little strategic value although it does control valuable salt and gypsum mines.

Soledar is an even smaller town, around 11 miles from Bakhmut.