European Russophilia, alongside the return of Trump, is producing a perfect storm for Kyiv

A Romanian activist holds up a placard depicting Romanian far-right independent candidate Calin Georgescu
A Romanian activist holds up a placard depicting Romanian far-Right independent candidate Calin Georgescu - Robert Ghement

A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of Russophilia. All eyes in the West are focused on whether the incoming Trump administration will force Ukraine to submit to the Carthaginian peace proposed by Vladimir Putin.

But Ukrainians don’t only need to worry about American isolationism. Just as big a concern for Volodymyr Zelensky is the rise of pro-Russian political parties across the European Union, demanding an end to arms supplies to Kyiv and even undermining Nato itself.

Most commentary on the rise of far-Right parties in Europe has focused on reducing immigration, but halting arms to Ukraine is no less of a common denominator. All too often, the “peace” parties are motivated by the love that dare not speak its name: Russophilia.

Last Sunday’s presidential election in Romania was only the latest sign that populist politicians are turning pro-Russian sentiment into votes. Calin Georgescu is a TikTok influencer who likes to pose on horseback or as a martial arts fighter. But he is also an ultra-nationalist who admires Putin, denounces Nato and calls for “peace” in Ukraine on Russian terms.

In his bid to become Romanian President, Georgescu won the first round, knocking out the pro-Western Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu. He now has the momentum to defeat the liberal Elena Lasconi in the run-off.

Strategically, Romania matters: it has a 400-mile border with Ukraine and hosts one of Nato’s largest air bases. Georgescu gained his upset result with just 23 per cent of the vote; his victory in the second round is not assured. But Romania is not immune to the Russophile politics of its neighbours Serbia and Hungary. Slovakia is also firmly aligned with the pro-Putin “peace” camp, whose unofficial leader is Viktor Orban, the Hungarian PM.

Austria, too, is tiptoeing away from Ukraine following September’s general election. Then the pro-Russian Freedom Party (FPÖ) triumphed over its social democratic and conservative rivals, which have been trying to form a coalition ever since. Last Sunday the FPÖ captured the state of Styria, which includes Graz, the country’s second city.

As in Romania, the Austrian Russophiles are led by a charismatic, anti-establishment populist: Herbert Kickl. He appeals to Austrians who fear being dragged into war on behalf of Ukraine, but as interior minister he was accused of being the weakest link in Western intelligence.

The Russophile wave sweeping across the nations of Central Europe is also washing over Germany. There the extremes of Left and Right converge in their demands for an end to military aid to Ukraine and a resumption of cheap energy supplies from Russia.

The most striking example of this Faustian pact is at the regional level. Three states in the former East Germany – Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia – are struggling to cobble together coalition governments, after big gains by the hard Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-Left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

While the far-Right is still ostracised by the mainstream parties for historical reasons, the Leftist firebrand Sahra Wagenknecht has emerged as the kingmaker in all three states. As the price of her support, she insists that coalition partners sign up to her pro-Russian agenda. Her promise of cheap gas and anti-war rhetoric has proved to be a potent cocktail. Even debates about loosening Germany’s fiscally conservative “debt brake” have been hijacked by Wagenknecht’s demand to cut off aid to Ukraine.

The German states have no control over foreign policy, but the surge in regional Russophilia could prove decisive in next February’s federal election. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, often seen as “Putin’s useful idiot”, is expected to lose office, but his main rival, the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz, has also been cautious on the war.

A big vote for Sahra Wagenknecht’s “peace party” is likely to make a future Chancellor Merz no less reluctant than Scholz to offer Ukraine the whole-hearted support it needs to survive.