Saracens vs Gloucester: Forget Owen Farrell vs Danny Cipriani, the real semi-final battle comes up front

We’ve been here before this season. The Owen Farrell vs Danny Cipriani shootout, the battle to be England’s supreme fly-half, the duel between the national team captain and the newly-crowned Premiership Player of the Season – and with the added carrot of a place in next weekend’s final on the line.

Only that’s not really the case, is it?

Rugby matches rarely become about one-on-one battles, even when it comes to the crucial No 10 position, yet there is something else that makes this individual contest one that has already reached the final bell, and that has nothing to do with who wins on Saturday afternoon.

Cipriani could be at his brilliant best, turn in a 10-out-of-10 display and completely bamboozle a Saracens defence that has conquered all in Europe this season to inspire Gloucester to the biggest of upsets in Premiership semi-final history. Yet it is unimaginable that Eddie Jones will see that and decide to suddenly change his ways, discard Farrell for the Rugby World Cup warm-ups and try to build Plan B around Cipriani.

Simply put, he cannot afford to, not this late into a World Cup cycle. And on top of that, when push comes to shove and you ask yourself who the better fly-half is in the heat of a World Cup campaign, it’s awfully hard to look past Farrell.

The 27-year-old has been England captain for under a year and has plenty of growing to do in the role, but there is not another fly-half in Europe who can match up to him in terms of performance and success over the last four years. At best, Cipriani can claim to be third on that list behind Leinster and Ireland’s Johnny Sexton, but only when it comes to his rugby as the trophy cabinet looked rather bare before his personal accolades over the last month.

One well known Daily Mail columnist urged Eddie Jones this week to gamble with “maverick” Cipriani because they “win matches and tournaments”. To ask if Grant Fox, Michael Lynagh, Joel Stransky, Stephen Larkham, Jonny Wilkinson, Butch James and Dan Carter qualify as “mavericks” of the game would bring a smile out of anyone with knowledge of what it takes to win a Rugby World Cup, but then maverick columnists are entitled to their opinion.

Remove the Farrell-Cipriani argument and who can win the World Cup for England, and you’re left with the facts: Gloucester – not Cipriani – need the performance of a lifetime to knock the reigning Premiership and re-crowned European champions off their perch. Saracens have looked untouchable once again since the end of the Six Nations, timing their sprint finish to perfection with European wins over Glasgow, Munster and Leinster and using the Premiership to rest their first XV where appropriate. Whether you like it or not, Saracens look after their players to ensure they are in the best shape possible come the business end of the season, and even though they head into Saturday’s Allianz Park clash robbed of Mako Vunipola and the mightily impressive Titi Lamositele on both sides of the front-row, Richard Barrington and Vincent Koch showed they are more than ample replacements in the Champions Cup final victory.

The loss of a linchpin such as Vunipola would hurt any side, but the ankle injury that USA international Lamositele suffered feels particularly sad given he has gone to great lengths to usurp Springbok Koch as Mark McCall’s first-choice tighthead this season.

Crucially, Gloucester were also able to rest their key players last weekend safe in the knowledge that they could not be caught in third place. Despite the restoration of 13 players who were rested from last weekend’s defeat by Sale, the loss of star wing Ollie Thorley from such an occasion is cruel reward for the biggest of breakthrough seasons.

The key for Gloucester comes in the forwards battle and in particular the ability of Ed Slater, Franco Mostert and Ben Morgan to take on the Saracens defensive line. England lock George Kruis set the tone for their dominant display over Leinster, and if he, Billy Vunipola, Maro Itoje and Co are allowed to do the same on Saturday, the 50-point thrashing Gloucester received at Allianz Park at the end of last season will feel all-too-familiar.