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Scotland seeking launchpad with landmark win against Ireland

<span>Photograph: Julien Behal/PA</span>
Photograph: Julien Behal/PA

Scotland have proved adept at throwing off the shackles of history in recent Six Nations: a first victory over France for 10 years in 2016, beating Wales for the first time in 10 years in 2017 and a first win over England for 10 years in 2018.

While there was no once-in-a-decade phenomenon last season, something even more remarkable happened. They emerged undefeated from Twickenham for the first time in 30 years, even if a first win since 1983 proved tantalisingly beyond them.

While a decade of defeat in Dublin barely registers by comparison, starting their 2020 campaign in a city where they have won once in the Six Nations era – in 2010 – represents another formidable challenge. All the more so now the architect of that mind-boggling Twickenham comeback last March – transforming a 31-0 deficit into a 38-38 Calcutta Cup draw – will not be among their ranks.

It remains to be seen whether Finn Russell’s removal from the Scotland squad is temporary or an indiscretion with more damaging long-term consequences. Whatever the reasons behind the fly-half’s decision to continue drinking at the team hotel last Sunday, he has already done his teammates, and Scotland supporters travelling to Dublin, a disservice.

Going to the Aviva Stadium, where Ireland have lost one Six Nations match in the past six years, was a demanding enough opening assignment. Travelling without one of their few genuine world-class players – and the orchestrator of their attack – smacks of a self-destructive streak.

Unless Gregor Townsend goes for broke and pitches the in-form Northampton centre Rory Hutchinson in at 10, a position he played for Scotland Under-20s, the likelihood is Adam Hastings will fill the void. The son of the former Scotland and Lions captain Gavin is in the Russell mould, a natural runner and ball-player whose instinct is to attack the gainline and commit defenders. But the 23-year-old, who featured as a replacement in last year’s championship, has yet to start a Six Nations match and concerns persist about his game management when the blowtorch is applied.

With the ultra-reliable Greig Laidlaw now retired from Test duty, Hastings will also shoulder the goalkicking duties, although Stuart Hogg’s prodigious boot provides useful long-range support.

Before news broke of Russell’s untimely exit, the spotlight was firmly on Scotland’s new captain, Hogg’s evident enthusiasm for the role one reason why Townsend handed him the responsibility. Helping to restore harmony presents an early test for the charismatic full-back, whose perennial optimism and confidence have swelled further since his move to Exeter.

After a failed World Cup campaign Townsend’s focus is on making Scotland harder to beat. They trip the light fantastic at times but 31 tries conceded in his 10 Six Nations games – with their opponents averaging 25 points – is not the basis for a sustained change of fortunes. The former Ospreys coach Steve Tandy has been recruited to bring a fresh voice and rigour to Scotland’s defence, after seven years under the direction of the Australian Matt Taylor.

There seems to be acknowledgment, too, that Scotland have been slaves to their attacking ideals at times, overplaying their hand when a more pragmatic approach might yield greater rewards. “The teams which do it well, when they don’t get on the front foot, go to a kicking game or a Plan B. That is something we are working on,” says the second-row Grant Gilchrist.

There will be not be a radical departure from Plan A, though, with Scotland sticking to their high-tempo, high-wire act. “Nothing is going to change in terms of the way we want to try to play,” says Hogg. “We want to play quick rugby, with ambition, and we’ve got some X-factor players within our squad. It’s about finding the balance of when to play and when not to play. We need to play smart rugby. I want the boys to play with confidence and express ourselves. That’s when we’re at our best.”

Ireland are also entering a period of renewal, with their defence coach, Andy Farrell, moving into the top job after a highly successful six years – including three Six Nations titles and a grand slam – under Joe Schmidt. They have their own World Cup demons to exorcise but are as well stocked with top-drawer, experienced operators as any of their Six Nations rivals – they have a hard-bitten pack, classy half-backs, a powerful midfield and a back-three bristling with intent.

If the full-back Jordan Larmour shakes off a foot injury, his sparkling form could make him one of the stars of the tournament. The Munster wing Andrew Conway adds a dynamic dimension, while the highly rated Leinster back-rows, Max Deegan and Caelan Doris, are poised for first forays into Test rugby. John Cooney’s scintillating season for Ulster makes him a contender at scrum-half but Farrell hinted he is not ready to dispense with Conor Murray’s controlling influence just yet, even if Ireland’s attack is a focus for improvement.

“We want to develop our game but at the same time we want to win,” said the head coach. “Attack is always a difficult process. It might take a bit of time but we will get there. The key is not to get ahead of ourselves.”

With the new captain, Johnny Sexton, upbeat about his prospects of being fit to face Scotland, and another home game against Wales in round two, it would be no great surprise if Ireland find themselves heading to Twickenham on 23 February with a triple crown in their sights.

Scotland have won only once in Dublin in the Six Nations era. Ireland have lost just once at the Aviva in the past six years in the tournament

L 10 March 2018 28-8 Aviva Stadium

L 19 Mar 2016 35-25 Aviva Stadium

L 2 Feb 2014 28–6 Aviva Stadium

L 10 Mar 2012 32–14 Aviva Stadium

W 20 Mar 2010 20-23 Croke Park

L 23 Feb 2008 34–13 Croke Park

L 11 Mar 2006 15-9 Lansdowne Rd

L 27 Mar 2004 37-16 Lansdowne Rd

L 2 Mar 2002 43-22 Lansdowne Rd

L 19 Feb 2000 44–22 Lansdowne Rd