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Almost 125,000 predicted grades lowered on Scottish exam results day

All exams were axed this year due to coronavirus 
All exams were axed this year due to coronavirus

Scotland's exam results day has seen 1250,000 grades downgraded from teachers' predictions amid rising concerns about A-level and GCSE results later this month.

The country's exams authority is braced for a deluge of appeals from angry and distraught teenagers after the system was condemned as "fundamentally unfair".

Thousands of pupils received their grades for the National 5, the Higher and the Advanced Higher – broadly equivalent to GCSEs, AS and A-levels respectively on Tuesday.

All exams were axed due to the coronavirus crisis. Instead, teachers submitted predicted grades to exam boards, which were then moderated by the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA). More than a quarter (26.2 per cent) of grades were changed during the moderation process, with the vast majority rising or falling by one, the SQA said.

Meanwhile, 45,454 grades (8.9 per cent) were moderated down from grades A-C to either a grade D or to no award. A total of 124,564 pupils' results were downgraded, meaning the grade they received was lower than their teacher's prediction.

The formula used to moderate the grades, published on Tuesday, came under scrutiny after it emerged that the school a pupil attended played a major role in determining whether or not a grade was lowered.

Jamie Greene, the education spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives, said the results were a "disaster" and "a shambles".

"It is fundamentally unfair to make assumptions about a pupil based on where they live," he said. "It risks widening the attainment gap to an almost unassailable degree. The people who will suffer most are this generation of Scotland’s pupils who face a horrendously uncertain time in the days ahead."

Jamie Greene described the situation as 'a shambles' - Ken Jack/Getty Images Europe
Jamie Greene described the situation as 'a shambles' - Ken Jack/Getty Images Europe

It comes as pupils in England prepare to receive their A-level results next week and GCSE results the week after.

There is rising concern that the grades students are awarded will be lower than teachers' predictions after Ofqual, the English exam regulator, revealed that most results will be decided by statistical modelling instead.

Concerns over the reliability of teachers' predictions – in particular their tendency to inflate pupils' grades – led to a decision by Ofqual not to rely on them.

Dr Tony Breslin, a former chief examiner, said English students should not be surprised to find their results are lower than their teachers' predictions because "the whole point of a moderation system is to bring things in line".

He told The Telegraph this would inevitably create "winners and losers", adding: "Teachers have erred on the side of optimism, and the whole point of moderation is to correct that."

While pupils in Scotland are able to appeal against their results, English students are banned from doing so apart from on narrow technical grounds. The only way in which pupils can appeal against GCSE and A-level marks is to sit a new set of exams in the autumn.

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, argued that the "moderation" process was necessary as, if teacher recommendations had been accepted without changes, results would have been vastly inflated compared to previous years, which would have raised questions over the credibility of the qualifications.

Nicola Sturgeon urged pupils to appeal if they felt they had not been treated fairly - Fraser Bremner/Scottish Daily Mail/PA
Nicola Sturgeon urged pupils to appeal if they felt they had not been treated fairly - Fraser Bremner/Scottish Daily Mail/PA

Speaking at her daily briefing, Ms Sturgeon defended the system but urged students to appeal if they did not believe they had been treated fairly.

The First Minister said that, without the moderation, a 19.8 per cent increase of the pass rate among the poorest fifth of pupils would have been "unprecedented and therefore not credible".

The SQA said its moderation process had ensured "fairness to all learners" and maintained "standards and credibility" in the qualification system.

Even after SQA moderation, the National 5 pass rate was 81.1 per cent, the Higher pass rate was 78.9 per cent and the Advanced Higher pass rate was 84.9 per cent, up from last year’s 78.2 per cent, 74.8 per cent and 79.4 per cent respectively.

An Ofqual spokesman said A-level and GCSE results will be "just as valuable" as in any other year.

"Although exams have been cancelled because of coronavirus, most students will still be able to move on to further study or employment as planned, with calculated grades based on judgments from their schools or colleges and standardised by exam boards to make sure they're accurate and consistent between centres," the spokesman said.