Advertisement

Scottish independence tracker: Polls show slump in support for Scottish independence

Polls show support for Scottish independence at an all time high 
Polls show support for Scottish independence at an all time high

Opinion polls conducted since the start of April show dwindling support for Scottish independence, Telegraph analysis shows.

Over the past month, an average of the polls show that 46 per cent of Scots are against independence whilst 45 per cent are in favour.

The most recent ten polls conducted widen that gap to 47 per cent opposed and 44 per cent in favour.

The proportion of undecided voters has remained steady at around 9 per cent of the population.

The results come as a significant change in people's views on independence.

Since early-2020, support for Scottish independence had overtaken opposition, with the Yes vote securing a 8 per lead in average polling numbers in October last year.

This resurgence in Scottish nationalism came as the devolved government took a markedly different approach to its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic from Westminster and Brexit.

But in recent months, the success of the UK-government's vaccination rollout and splits within the Scottish nationalist movement appear to have dampened support for independence.

Before the resurgence last year, polls has shown clear opposition to independence, even after the EU referendum which saw England and Wales vote in favour of Brexit, whilst Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain.

In 2014 Scotland voted by a clear majority to stay in the UK, with 55.3 per cent of ballots cast against independence leaving and 44.7 per cent cast in favour, but the most recent polling average now shows the situation reversed.

Despite the decline in support for Scottish independence, the Scottish National Party has sustained a considerable gap in the polls ahead of Thursday's Scottish Parliament elections.

An average of the most recent polls show 48.5 per cent of Scots plan to vote for the SNP in their constituencies.

This is ahead of the Conservative's 21.5 per cent, Labour's 20.3 per cent and the Liberal Democrat's 7.5 per cent .

But similar to independence, the support for the SNP has decreased in the polls in recent months.

In October last year, their polling numbers averaged at around 54 per cent.

Labour have benefited most from this slump in the polls, having increased their polling numbers by 5 per cent over the period.

Scottish voters will also vote for regional members of the Scottish Parliament with polls similarly showing a significant gap between the SNP and the second-place Conservatives.

During the last election in 2016, the SNP fells two seats short of an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament.

The fall in the polls could hamper hopes of claiming a majority in the elections which would have been used as justification for seeking a second referendum vote.

In January, the SNP proposed an 11-point roadmap for holding a second referendum if they secure a majority in the Parliament.

Since then, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been engaged in a bitter conflict with former SNP leader Alex Salmond over sexual harassment claims against the latter.

Ms Sturgeon was cleared of breaking rules over her handling of the allegations but was heavily criticised by some members of the Scottish Parliament.

In the aftermath, Mr Salmond went on to form his own independence party, Alba, which is also contesting in Thursday's election.