Searing heatwaves ‘could hit Britain every year’ even if we stick to climate targets

Scorching summer heatwaves similar to this year’s could hit Britain every year due to climate change – even if we stick close to current emissions targets.

Researchers warn that if the world hits the 2°C ‘upper limit’ set out in the Paris Agreement, heatwaves could become an annual occurrence.

If temperatures increase by 1.5°C – the target of the Paris agreeement – heatwaves could occur every other year, the University of Bristol researchers say

Researchers from the University of Bristol used computer modelling to predict the frequency of heatwaves as the world warms.

Dr Dann Mitchell, who was involved in the study, said: ‘As the extreme European heatwave persists into August, with notable droughts, wildfires and impacts on human health, the question being asked is how often would a similar heatwave re-occur in the future?’

‘We show that in our current climate, heat waves similar in temperature to the present one would occur about once every five to six years, on average.

‘Our climate models are not perfect, and they cannot capture all aspects of the current heatwave, but they can give us a reasonable estimate as to what to expect in the future.’

The Met Office has warned that summer temperatures could regularly hit 38.5C by the 2040s – and experts say that brutal heatwaves will become more regular.

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The Environmental Audit Committee warns that there could be 7,000 heat related deaths annually by the year 2050.

Scientists are wary of attributing single weather events to climate change – but climate change makes extreme weather events more likely.

In the past 30 years, Earth’s annual temperature has risen 0.54 degrees Celsius according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Polar regions have lost billions of tons of ice; sea levels have been raised by trillions of gallons of water.

The Northern Hemisphere has warmed more than the Southern, the land faster than the ocean.