She will split the party, say May’s Tory opponents

After two years of negotiating, infighting and intrigue, it is now only a week until Theresa May intends to head to Brussels to finalise her much-maligned Brexit deal. Unfortunately for the prime minister, however, her own team will be fighting her every inch of the way. “I’m going to the wire to get Brexit,” said one senior minister. “Proper Brexit.”

Whatever she signs off with EU officials next weekend, May’s turbulent week has led a growing number of her frontbench to conclude her Brexit plan faces almost certain defeat in the Commons. The ferocity of feeling it has unleashed also has many concerned that the party will be forced into a historic split over the issue. One major donor even suggests a new party may be required to represent disenchanted Brexiters.

“This deal is horrible. Complete capitulation – worse than capitulation in a way. She has managed to unite the Remainers and the Brexiters,” said Crispin Odey, the hedge fund manager whose most recent donation to the Conservative party was a £50,000 gift before last year’s general election. “She has provided an O-level answer to an A-level question.

“She will split the party [if she secures her deal based on Labour support]. She is not Conservative in any way. There’s no principle she has to blow up to get Labour on her side. I will never forgive her for this, as we will never be allowed to leave.”

Ministers who previously believed May’s deal had a chance of winning Commons support were left dismayed by Thursday’s parliamentary debate, in which the deal was widely attacked for giving up too much sovereignty and potentially binding the UK into a customs union with the EU.

Hopes of Labour MPs opting to save May’s deal have all but vanished. Some of the small group of Labour MPs earmarked as possible supporters spoke out against it last week.

Despite claims from May and her chief whip Julian Smith that enough support can be rallied for her deal, some of her allies admit there is currently no majority for any Brexit outcome – including her plan. It means attention is already turning to whether May’s deal could be voted through at the second time of asking, when a looming no-deal outcome could force MPs to think again.

The grim parliamentary mood has emboldened cabinet ministers concerned about the deal to demand changes, with a list of specific demands set to be drawn up this week and put to No 10. However, Downing Street is insisting the prime minister will sign her deal, together with a wider agreement on Britain’s future EU relationship, at a summit next Sunday.

Hopes were growing in Downing Street over the weekend that an attempt by hardline Brexiters to topple May as party leader had misfired. A confidence vote in May’s leadership is triggered when 48 Tory MPs write letters demanding a contest. Whips have worked since Friday to head off a contest.

The European Research Group, headed by Jacob Rees-Mogg and co-ordinated by the former Brexit minister Steve Baker, was still working over the weekend to reach the threshold. Yesterday, Downing St sources insisted that they had not been notified that the number had been reached.

However, even if May avoids a confidence vote in her leadership, the 23 MPs who have so far asked for a contest will combine with many more colleagues to vote against her Brexit deal. Hugo Swire, a former Foreign Office minister, said the issue of party management had become “very delicate”.

“If a significant number of Tory MPs vote against the deal and it is carried through on the backs of the Labour party, those same Tory MPs are going to feel alienated,” he warned. “We have seen what has happened in the past when the party is divided on major issues.

“Additionally, there must be a very real possibility that in the event of a deal that is not seen to honour the commitment to leave the EU and leave it properly, Ukip will re-emerge as a significant political force. In either event the threat to our party at the present time should not be underestimated.”

George Bridges, a former Brexit minister, warned of a looming constitutional crisis. He told the Observer that May’s deal “could mean the UK being locked into a customs union for a very long time. We have to decide whether or not that is a palatable outcome”.

“Unless the EU moves, I can see the chances of us leaving without a deal are rising fast,” he warned. “That would plunge us into a constitutional crisis.

“MPs will no doubt sense the impending chaos and confusion, [and] many may say to themselves: ‘We’d better just forget our concerns and vote for this’. As the days pass, some may decide this deal is the best of the bad options. The obvious question is, how many will hold their noses and vote for it?”