SNP on course for majority in Scottish Parliament election – poll

Laura Paterson
·3-min read

The SNP are forecast to win a majority of seats at the Scottish Parliament election, according to the latest opinion poll.

The Ipsos Mori poll for STV found more than half (53%) of the respondents who are registered to vote and are at least 9/10 likely to do so intend to chose an SNP candidate in their constituency on May 6.

This is a rise of one percentage point from the previous Ipsos Mori poll for STV in February.

However, the party’s support on the regional list has fallen by nine percentage points since the previous poll, to 38%.

Support for the Scottish Greens has risen by four percentage points in the same period, to 12%.

Only 3% of voters said they would cast their list vote for Alex Salmond’s recently-launched Alba Party.

For the constituency vote, the headline Scottish Parliament voting intention figures are at 20% for the Scottish Conservatives, down three percentage point on the February poll.

Scottish Labour are on 18% (-3), the Scottish Liberal Democrats are on 6% (+1) and the Scottish Greens are on 2% (-1).

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For the regional list vote, Labour are up four percentage points to 18% while the Tories are on 21% (-1) and the Lib Dems remain unchanged on 6%.

Independence is seen as the top issue helping voters decide which party to vote for, with 49% mentioning it – up five percentage points on the previous poll.

Education comes second at 28% (-4), followed by the NHS at 27% (+2), managing the economy at 16% (+2) and coronavirus at 15% (-5).

Pollsters found support for independence is at the same level it was in the February poll, with Yes retaining a narrow lead.

March for Independence
The poll found a narrow majority for Yes among those who would vote in a referendum on Scottish independence (Lesley Martin/PA)

Among those likely to vote in an independence referendum, 52% say they would vote Yes while 48% would vote No.

Emily Gray, Ipsos Mori Scotland managing director, said: “Our latest poll results suggest the SNP are on course to win a majority of seats at Holyrood in May.

“Independence remains the top issue for Scotland’s voters and an independence ‘supermajority’ at Holyrood looks within the realms of possibility.

“However, our poll indicates that this may come from an uplift in support for the Scottish Greens on the regional vote rather than for the Alba Party.

“The Alba Party’s main impact to date may have been to remind pro-independence voters of how to use their regional vote tactically.”

Ipsos Mori conducted telephone interviews with a representative sample of 1,038 people in Scotland aged 16 and up between March 29 and April 4.

Scottish Greens co-leader Lorna Slater said: “This poll tells us that the Scottish Greens are set to have a record number of MSPs in Holyrood and could yet play a crucial role in securing a pro-independence majority in May.

“I’m also proud that if this poll turns into votes, we will have eight women and three men as our Scottish Green MSPs.”

Mr Salmond said: “There have been three polls thus far since Alba’s launch just 12 days ago. Each of them shows identifiable support for Alba.”

He added that as his party’s “name recognition gets across, we will gain further ground”.

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