SNP predicted to lose seats but independence support steady in new poll
SUPPORT for independence is stable in new polling, despite the figures being the worst recorded seat projections for the SNP since before the 2016 Holyrood election.
New research from Savanta, carried out from March 28-31 (after Humza Yousaf was elected as the new SNP leader), suggests a small drop in support for the SNP at Holyrood combined with a continued rise in backing for Labour – putting them on course for just 46 seats, 18 fewer than their current total.
Meanwhile, Labour would return 42 MSPs – a gain of 20.
At the same time the Greens would gain two MSPs, leaving the pro-independence side of Holyrood in the minority on just 56 seats. Together Labour, the Tories and LibDems would have 73.
According to Ballot Box Scotland, if the results were replicated at an election Alex Cole-Hamilton (above) would be the only party leader with a constituency seat.
Pro-independence parties would also take just 43% on the regional list vote, as opposed to 53% won by Labour, the Tories and LibDems combined.
Elsewhere the polling puts the SNP on 39% for Westminster (-3), Labour on 33% (+1), and the Tories on 19% (+2).
According to polling experts Ballot Box Scotland, the survey is the best for Labour or any opposition party, and the worst for the SNP, since before 2016.
At the same time, independence support holds steady on 45%, up one percentage point from the last survey from Savanta last month.
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No is on 47%, also up one point. With don’t knows excluded, No is at 52% and Yes is on 48%.