SNP slumps in new general election poll as Scottish Labour on course for historic victory

A new poll has revealed Labour is in line for a crushing general election victory over the SNP in Scotland.

The survey shows the Nationalists losing over 30 constituencies and Anas Sarwar’s party soaring to 28 seats. Sarwar and UK Labour leader Keir Starmer also have a better approval rating than First Minister John Swinney.

The SNP have dominated elections in Scotland for over a decade and they cleaned up at the 2019 Westminster election. They won 48 seats while Labour returned Ian Murray as their solitary MP.

A new Survation poll, commissioned by advisory firm True North, shows Scotland is headed for an electoral earthquake.

According to the findings, 36 per cent of Scots will vote Labour at the election, with 32 per cent plumping for the SNP.

The survey shows the Conservatives and Lib Dems on 17 per cent and nine per cent respectively. On these figures the SNP would be reduced to 16 MPs while Labour would return 28 - their biggest total since 2010.

The Survation poll backs up other snapshots which show Labour on course to come first in Scotland.

Although the Holyrood election is two years away, the poll also shows Labour could replace the SNP as the largest party in Edinburgh. A four-point lead for Labour on the regional list vote would give them 48 seats to the SNP’s 42.

Labour would remain 17 seats short of a majority in these circumstances. Support for independence remains at 45% almost a decade on from the 2014 referendum.

According to the poll, Sir Keir Starmer is the most popular leader of a Westminster party in Scotland, with a net favourability rating of +3%. Sarwar stood at -3% and Swinney was on -7%.

True North Managing Partner Fergus Mutch said: “With five long weeks of campaigning ahead, it’s very much Labour’s election to lose.

“These figures suggest that they are primed to overturn a score of SNP-held seats in central belt Scotland and return the most MPs to Westminster. With momentum on the side of the Labour Party UK-wide, it will require a powerful response from any party seeking to halt this juggernaut.

“That said, the difference in vote share between Labour and the SNP remains fairly marginal — and these figures are tighter than suggested by other polls in recent weeks. The SNP will be hoping that with new leadership they can find renewed purpose which can at least stem the predicted losses, if not completely turn the tide.”

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said: “The fallout from Humza Yousaf's termination of the Bute House Agreement has enabled the SNP to install a somewhat less unpopular leader in John Swinney.

"However, Mr Swinney's rating is well below what Nicola Sturgeon enjoyed before she resigned as the SNP's head last year, and the downfall of Mr Yousaf has not provided an immediate remedy for the SNP's electoral difficulties.

“Rather the fallout from the termination of the Bute House Agreement has further weakened the grip of the SNP on the loyalties of Scotland's voters. The party's support for Westminster is as much as four points down on the beginning of the year. Fewer than two in three of those who would vote Yes in an independence referendum are currently minded to vote for the party.

“As a result, Labour now have a clear lead in Westminster vote intentions for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum.

“As the general election campaign gets under way, the SNP face the prospect of severe losses at the beginning of July, and thus the possible loss of its coveted status as the third largest party at Westminster. The party badly needs to try and persuade Yes supporters to return to the party fold.”

SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown MSP: "We need to get rid of the Tory government. The way to do that in Scotland is to vote SNP because we are the main challengers in every Tory held seat.

"Austerity, Brexit and the cost of living crisis - all imposed on Scotland by Westminster - have pushed up household costs, hit the economy hard and cut the money available to spend on the NHS. At this election, vote SNP to put the interests of Scotland first."