How each Solihull area is predicted to vote in general election as shock result forecast

The village of Meriden
-Credit: (Image: Nick Wilkinson/Birmingham live)


RECENT polling suggests Solihull’s safe seats might not be as safe as voters may think as a potential shock could be on the cards. Predictions from respected pollster website, electoralcalculus.co.uk, will be giving Tory supporters something to think about ahead of July’s general election.

Under boundary changes mean the Meriden seat will become the new constituency of Meriden and Solihull East. At the last general election, in 2019, the Conservatives won Meriden by a majority of 19,865.

But Electoral Calculus’ prediction – based on opinion polls between May 8 and May 20 – is predicting the seat to be a Labour gain. The pollster website says Labour would get 33.9 per cent of the vote compared to the Conservatives 31.1 per cent and give Labour a 55 per cent chance of winning the seat compared to the Tories ’ 42 per cent.

READ MORE: General Election 2024 as battle to win Solihull voters begin

In comparison, in the 2019 election, the Conservatives had a 61.4 per cent share of the vote with Labour trailing on 20.7 per cent. The data is also broken down by the website into wards, with Electoral Calculus forecasting Bickenhill, Chelmsley Wood, Kingshurst and Fordbridge would all switch support from the Tories to Labour in the forthcoming election.

The Meriden constituency has traditionally been Conservative but did have periods in the 1950s, 60s and 70s when it was held by Labour. Labour are only predicted to win with a small majority on the seat but, as it is the Conservative’s 117th safest seat, defeat there could mean Labour are looking at having more than 450 seats in the Commons.

The magic number for the big parties is 326 seats of the 650 seats in the House of Commons to have an overall majority. The Local Democracy Reporting Service asked the office of Meriden MP Saqib Bhatti, who is standing again this time, for comment but has had no response.

-Credit:Dale Martin
-Credit:Dale Martin

Labour are yet to name their candidate for the seat. Meanwhile the new Solihull West and Shirley seat – formerly Solihull won by Julian Knight as a Conservative in 2019 – is forecast to stay Tory in this election.

But in even more troubling news for the Conservatives the seat, the 69th safest on the list, is forecast to become a marginal. The Conservatives are predicted to slump to a 33.1 per cent share of the vote, compared to Labour’s predicted 30.7 per cent.

Overall Electoral Calculus says the Tories have a 55 per cent chance of winning, to Labour’s 43 per cent. The Solihull seat was won at the 2019 election with a majority of 20,403 and a share of the vote of 60.9 per cent, showing how much the gap has narrowed according to the polls.

The Conservatives and Labour are still yet to name their candidates for the seat. Former West Midlands mayor Andy Street, who had been rumoured to stand for the Conservatives, ruled himself out in recent days.

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