Solihull General Election poll shows gap closing between the parties

-Credit: (Image: Sam Greenway LDR)
-Credit: (Image: Sam Greenway LDR)


Latest polls again show just how close the result of Solihull seats could be at this year’s general election. Solihull and Meriden which, after boundary changes, are becoming the new seats of 'Solihull West and Shirley' and 'Meriden and Solihull East' respectively, are both in the top 120 safest seats in the country for the Conservatives.

But as the Local Democracy Reporting Service recently reported both are being forecast to become marginals by respected pollster Electoral Calculus. That was based on opinion polls taken prior to the election being called, between May 8 and May 20.

Electoral Calculus forecast a shock result in Meriden saying Labour could take that seat for the first time since the 1970s. And the Solihull West seat was predicted by the pollster to be held by Conservatives - but only by a small majority.

READ MORE: Solihull residents unsure who they will vote for at general election

A new poll from YouGov, partnering with Sky News, is further proof the gap between Conservatives and Labour is closing on both seats. The polling projections known as MRPs is forecasting an historic landslide for Labour nationally surpassing even the one enjoyed by Tony Blair’s Labour in the 1997 election.

The poll, released on Monday, June 3, also uses big data sets and demographic analysis to predict results in individual seats. According to the poll Meriden and Solihull East is now “leaning” towards being a Conservative hold in some good news for the Tories.

Solihull West and Shirley is described as a “tossup” but is also forecast to be a Conservative hold. The projection is based on polling taken between May 24 and June 1 with significant developments since then.

-Credit:House of Commons Library
-Credit:House of Commons Library

Reform has since announced Nigel Farage is standing for election and has become their party's leader. Polling experts have said that could damage Tory hopes as traditionally voters may switch. Reform have previously announced they are standing in both Solihull seats.

The polling was also done prior to Julian Knight’s shock announcement he will be standing again in Solihull West and Shirley. Mr Knight was previously elected as a Conservative MP but has sat in the House of Commons as an independent since 2022 after having the whip removed.

The first leaders debate which takes place between Labour’s Keir Starmer and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and could also have an affect on the polls, is being held on Tuesday night, (June 4).

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