‘South Africa is going to get a third wave of coronavirus, even a fourth’

South Africa is struggling to contain a second wave of Covid-19 infections, fuelled by a virulent new local variant of the virus, “Covid fatigue” and a series of “super-spreader” events.

On Thursday health officials announced 844 deaths and 21,832 new cases in a 24-hour period, the worst toll yet. Experts believe the second wave has yet to reach its peak in the country of 60 million, and fear healthcare services in the country’s main economic and cultural hub may struggle to cope with the influx of patients.

Unlike wealthier countries, South Africa cannot afford to repeat the hard lockdown imposed last year, which caused massive economic and social damage. Some predict a third wave when winter comes in the southern hemisphere in May and June and there are fears that current vaccines may be less effective against the new variant.

“We are going to get a third wave, even a fourth. This pandemic has only just started,” said Tivani Mashamba, professor of diagnostic research at the University of Pretoria.

There is also growing criticism of authorities’ apparent failure to secure adequate supplies of vaccines. Last week health officials announced that around 1.5m doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine would be available for health workers by the end of next month.

It is unclear how promises to roll out jabs to two-thirds of the population through the year can be kept, though South Africa will get enough shots for 10% of its 60 million citizens through the global Covax initiative, designed to ensure equitable supply of cheap vaccines to poorer countries.

The official Covid-19 death toll in South Africa now stands at 31,368, but reliable excess mortality figures suggest over 71,000 have died since May. The country is the worst hit in Africa.

On a 4,000km journey from the badly hit province of KwaZulu-Natal through to the western city of Cape Town, now the centre of the second wave, the signs of the pandemic were clear. Shops and restaurants were shuttered on every high street in every town, with infrastructure suffering from an acute lack of repair and maintenance. Unemployment has soared as key industries such as mining and hospitality have suffered.

“We had almost nothing. Now we have nothing at all,” said Nicolas Mvoko, a former vineyard worker who recently lost his job in the Hex Valley, in the Western Cape. Wine and beer manufacturers have suffered from repeated bans aimed at preventing gatherings at which social distancing has been ignored and relieving pressure on the health system.

The poor and rural province of Limpopo appeared to have escaped the worst of the first wave, but has been hit badly by the second.

“It’s actually really bad here. Everyone knows someone who’s passed away. The health system is very weak,” said Mashamba. “Covid fatigue was a big factor. You can’t believe how many weddings were going on. I was invited to baby showers. I thought: this is horrendous, you’re exposing pregnant women.”

Efforts to control the flow of people across borders are also undermined by corruption and inefficiency. Huge crowds gathered at the crossing point with Zimbabwe last week as migrant workers rushed to return to jobs in South Africa after Christmas. Though all were meant to have had negative official Covid tests, a reported bribe of 2,500 rand (£120) to frontier guards secured passage with no questions asked.

“I went with a group of about 20 and we all paid the Zimbabwean soldiers, then the South African soldiers and us walked around the frontier post through the bush and across the border, then we all went wherever we were going in South Africa,” said Joy Mvulane, a domestic worker who travelled last week from the southern Zimbabwe city of Bulawayo to Johannesburg.

Alex van den Heever, professor of social security systems administration at Wits University, Johannesburg, said South African policymakers, led by president Cyril Ramaphosa, had limited options.

“The problem in South Africa is a [hard lockdown] has massive social and economic impact. South Africa isn’t in a position to support those who lose their earnings and parts of the country are effectively unlockdownable because of the social context,” he said. “The government is constrained in what it can do… We have to ride the storm, target what we can.”

However, as the crisis continues, there is growing anger at the ruling African National Congress party, in power since 1994. Public trust has been damaged by a series of allegations of corruption, particularly surrounding massive contracts for protective equipment in the early stages of the pandemic.

The granddaughter of Nelson Mandela said wasteful expenditure during a pandemic had made her “blood boil”.

“What upsets me, even more, is the amount of money lost through corruption, it’s billions of rand. I will never vote for the ANC again, ever… I’m sure wherever my granddad and our freedom fighters are, they are not happy,” Ndileka Mandela, told the Mail and Guardian.