Sturgeon rebuked by statistics watchdog for second time over care home visits claim

Nicola Sturgeon has been rebuked for a second time by the UK’s statistics watchdog for making unsubstantiated boasts about her handling of the pandemic.

The Office for Statistics Regulation said a claim by the First Minister in September, when she said at Holyrood that “around 40 per cent” of Scottish care homes “now allow and enable” indoor visits, turned out to be “a very loose approximation based on incomplete data”.

The independent body had earlier criticised Ms Sturgeon’s claim, which she made repeatedly in the summer, that virus prevalence was “five times” higher in England than Scotland.

Regarding her claim on care homes, Ms Sturgeon had responded to criticism by suggesting that around four in ten care homes were open for indoor visitors.

However, it later emerged, following a Freedom of Information request, that the figure did not include data from major health boards including Glasgow and Lanarkshire. Numbers from health boards that did provide them also applied to some outdoor visits.

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The Scottish Government has faced severe criticism from some families for not doing enough to facilitate care home visits, leaving elderly residents depressed and isolated.

Willie Rennie, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, said: "I asked the First Minister about care home visiting because I was hearing time and time again from constituents that government promises to enable safe access were falling flat.

"It would have been better if the First Minister had been open about the scale of the challenge, rather than try to pull the wool over people's eyes with partial statistics.

"It is rare for the UK Statistics Authority to step into the fray and deliver such a stinging rebuke. I would now like to see the First Minister get on with enabling elderly and vulnerable people to safely reunite with the loved ones."

In his letter, Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation at the Director General for Regulation at the Office for Statistics Regulation, said while it was “laudable” that government officials had tried to collect figures, they should only have been used publicly with major caveats.

He told Roger Halliday, the Scottish Government’s head of Covid analysis: “It is clear from that FOI and information you shared with us that the ‘around 40 per cent’ figure is a very loose approximation based on incomplete data.

“It is unsurprising that there is some uncertainty in the data, but this should have been more clearly reflected in the response and associated published materials.

“The First Minister’s statement of ‘around 40 per cent’ of care homes enable indoor visiting of residents suggested too much confidence in the figure.”

Statistics watchdogs also criticised the Scottish Government earlier in the pandemic for making unverified claims in a press release about the number of antibody tests carried out.

Donald Cameron, health spokesman for the Scottish Conservatives, said Ms Sturgeon had “yet again been caught out making inaccurate claims about information that has a profound impact on those affected.”

He added: “As we continue to fight this virus, it is absolutely imperative that clear and accurate data is presented to the public by the First Minister and her SNP colleagues at all times.”

A spokesman for the Scottish Government said: “At all times the Scottish Government aims to be transparent in its approach and ensure Parliament and the public is kept informed of the latest developments.

“Official Statistics have played a key role during the fast-moving pandemic and we have worked tirelessly to produce new statistics on a daily basis, as it is imperative our decision making is based on the latest scientific data.”

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