Sudan poised to follow UAE and normalise ties with Israel in hugely symbolic move, despite internal divisions

Sudan could be the next Arab state to normalise relations with Israel, following the recent surprise announcement that the United Arab Emirates had established diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.

However, mixed messages coming out of Khartoum in recent days highlight how sensitive the subject is for the nation, and that any path forward will be fraught with difficulty.

On Tuesday, a Sudanese foreign ministry official told Sky News Arabia that Khartoum was “looking forward to concluding a peace agreement with Israel”, sparking speculation that it could become the fourth Arab country to normalise relations after the UAE, Egypt and Jordan. But the next day acting Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din Ismail fired the spokesman, saying he was “astonished” by his statement.

While normalisation remains a sensitive issue, privately Sudan has engaged in talks with Israel for months, encouraged by the UAE and the United States. One Sudanese official recently told the Associated Press “it's a matter of time” before a deal is concluded.

For Israel, normalisation with Sudan would be a particularly symbolic prize. Khartoum hosted the 1967 Arab League summit following the Arab-Israeli war at which eight Arab states agreed to what became known as the “three nos”; no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel and no negotiations.

Through three decades of Islamist rule under former president Omar Al Bashir, Sudan remained staunchly anti-Zionist. But with his overthrow amid widespread protests last April, a major hurdle to normalisation has been removed.

Today Sudan is eager to rejoin the international community and is desperate for economic support. Behind the scenes, the UAE is encouraging Sudan and other Arab nations to forgo historic enmity with Israel as part of a wider strategy to forge a new regional alliance.

Sudan’s transitional civilian-led government, in which the military wields power behind the scenes, faces lingering conflicts in Darfur and South Kordofan, and a crippling economic crisis, with high unemployment and inflation contributing to food insecurity.

“All of this means that Sudan is looking for friends in a big way,” said Eric Reeves, a longtime Sudan researcher.

After concluding their own accord together this month, Israel and the UAE are promising Sudan such a friendship.

“Israel, Sudan and the region will all benefit from a peace deal and will be able to build a better future together,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on Tuesday. “We will do whatever is necessary to turn vision into reality.”

The UAE was once instrumental in supporting Mr Bashir, giving billions in aid, but withdrew its help in 2018, reportedly dissatisfied with his failure to sideline Islamists. As Sudan’s economy collapsed, angry protesters demanded the resignation of Mr Bashir, who found himself vulnerable without his powerful Gulf allies.

Support was promptly reinstated after Mr Bashir’s overthrow, with the UAE and Saudi throwing Sudan a $3 billion lifeline, but future aid could be contingent on Sudan following the UAE’s lead on regional issues, including normalisation. “The UAE has an interest in seeing Sudan formally enter into that alliance it’s trying to build against Iran, Qatar, and the Muslim Brotherhood,” said International Crisis Group analyst Jonas Horner.

Despite the risk of backlash from Islamists and a Sudanese public long conditioned to oppose Israel, Sudan appears open to discussing normalisation. In February, the UAE and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo brokered a meeting in Uganda between Mr Netanyahu and the head of Sudan’s military council General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

“There is a political risk for the government, which is probably why they are soft-shoeing it,” said Mr Horner. “But I do think there’s a healthy amount of pragmatism in Sudan.”

But amid the realpolitik, the interests of Sudanese have not been consulted, noted Inbal Ben Yehuda, a scholar specialising in Sudan at the Forum for Regional Thinking. “If Sudan is pressured to normalise ties in a transitional period before there is a democratically elected government, that is an abuse of power,” she said.

Palestinian leaders meanwhile now fear a domino effect whereby other Arab states temper their commitment to the Palestinian cause in favour of the benefits of normalised relations, which include business opportunities, intelligence sharing and access to advanced Israeli surveillance technology.

Amid quietly warming relations, some predict Oman, where Mr Netanyahu visited in 2018, or Bahrain could be the next to normalise ahead of Sudan.

Members of Bahrain’s tiny ruling Al Khalifa family have previously received medical treatment in Israel, notes Elizabeth Tsurkov, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, predicting that the tiny island kingdom could be the forerunner among Gulf states.

“Saudi has used Bahrain in the past for trial balloons of normalisation, to observe the response from the Arab public,” she said.

Saudi Arabia said this week it would not establish diplomatic ties with Israel until the Jewish state made peace with the Palestinians, raising the possibility that the UAE’s normalisation drive could become another wedge issue in a region already riven by competing powers.

“The risk is there’s a new division in the region,” Mr Horner said, “between those that follow the UAE into normalisation and those that don’t.”