Super Thursday elections in Britain: when to expect results

It might be super Thursday in terms of the amount of voting, but many of the results from the elections being held across every part of the UK except Northern Ireland will trickle in over several days, mainly due to Covid restrictions slowing the counting process.

So here are the timings of some politically significant races to keep an eye out for.

Friday, after 4am: Hartlepool byelection

A solitary parliamentary contest bolted on to the rest, this is simultaneously one of the most significant races and one where many of the repercussions have already been politically priced in. Both polling and Labour’s own surveys seems to indicate that Keir Starmer will preside over his party’s first loss of the seat to the Conservatives since the constituency was created in 1974. This would be a notable blow to the Labour leader, while simultaneously highlighting existing structural issues for the party as much as any new failings. For a recently-embattled Boris Johnson, it would remind his party that he can help them win in once-unexpected places. For all the current assumption of an easy Tory win, Labour will be helped by significantly more local activists, which could affect the final figures.

Friday, from about midday: first Scottish election results

Of the 73 constituency-based Scottish parliament seats, 46 are counting on Friday, and result should start coming fairly soon. Pre-election polls have varied quite considerably in their verdict about whether the SNP can win the majority needed to push for a new independence referendum, and these results should give a better picture. However, it could change with the regional seats, chosen from a party list, which are not counted before Saturday.

Friday afternoon: key council results

Some councils are counting on Thursday evening, with results coming as early as 2am on Friday. But there are a series of notable contests declaring later on Friday, including places like Derbyshire, where Labour would want to see at least some progress reversing Conservative gains made the last time it was fought, in 2017. Doncaster will be an indicator as to how far the Tories can advance into “red wall” councils. Cornwall is also due to be announced, with the Liberal Democrats keen to show they can still achieve good local results, despite their national woes.

Friday afternoon: Tees Valley mayor

This is not expected to be a nail-biter, with the incumbent Conservative, Ben Houchen, looking likely to be re-elected. But if it is a strong win, this will be seen by Tories as a vindication of their strategy of pumping highly-visible investment into former Labour strongholds.

From about 3pm Friday: Welsh parliament

These will be the first constituencies, with all results expected in by the end of the evening. Like the Scottish parliament, the Welsh Senedd has a mix of constituency and list-based regional races. One key factor could be whether the generally favourable view of the way Mark Drakeford has tackled the Covid crisis could help Labour do better than in some other parts of the UK.

Saturday after midday: more English councils, and police and crime commissioners

Councils to keep a look out for here include Hertfordshire, a traditionally Tory area where the Lib Dems and Labour will nonetheless be hoping to tap into residual anti-Brexit sentiment from pro-remain voters. The first dozen or so results for the 39 police and crime commissioners (PCCs) being elected across England and wales should also start to arrive.

Saturday afternoon: West Midlands mayor

Among a series of mayoral results due around then, the Conservatives are hopeful that the incumbent mayor, Andy Street, will be re-elected for a region that still has a lot of Labour MPs. Labour’s candidate, Liam Byrne, has nonetheless remained bullish about his chances of confounding expectations.

Saturday evening: London mayor and assembly

The first results for assembly members will arrive late on Friday, with seven constituency areas counting then. The remaining local seats, and list-based members, will come on Saturday evening, followed by the mayoral result. It would be a huge upset if Labour’s Sadiq Khan was not re-elected, with Labour taking the most assembly seats. In the mayoral race, keep a look out for whether the Greens’ Sian Berry beats the Lib Dems’ Luisa Porritt to take third place behind the Tory candidate, Shaun Bailey.

Sunday and Monday

The counting doesn’t stop on Saturday. A series of councils and PCC races will be declared in the coming two days.