Citizens remain wary of Russia but Idlib truce better than bombing

Relieved locals and rebel groups in Idlib have been trying to unpick details of an eleventh-hour truce that excludes much of the northern Syrian province from a Russian-led attack for at least one month and sets up a buffer zone intended to shield 3 million civilians.

The surprise initiative, brokered by Turkey and Russia on Monday, assuages fears of an immediate widespread humanitarian catastrophe and sets the scene for a swathe of northern Syria to remain out of central government control indefinitely.

The arrangement strengthens the role of Turkish-backed rebels in the northern province, and is likely to lead hardline groups to make a tactical retreat to southern Idlib where, for now, they will remain out of the sights of Russian and Syrian guns.

The move is a welcome respite for Syrian opposition groups, who had feared a massive attack aimed at returning the final rebel-held province to central government control, allowing Bashar al-Assad to clinch victory in the seven-year war.

As momentum built towards an attack, Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran, grew increasingly wary of the political price they would end up paying by bringing about a humanitarian crisis unlike any other in the Syrian war.

Weeks of belligerent rhetoric from Tehran and Moscow had increasingly softened in recent days and been replaced by common ground with Ankara – a central backer of what remains of the anti-Assad opposition, which has increasingly muscled in on northern Syria and saw its own interests unravelling if chaos was ignited along its border.

“Civilians in Idlib think this is a good deal, they feel hopeful and happy concerning it,” said Mahmoud Abbi, a spokesperson for Free Idlib Police, a rebel-backed local police force. “We are grateful for Turkey’s efforts to prevent the Russian and Assad attack on Idlib. However … we do not trust Russia about the deal. But for now it is better than displacement or bombing.

“The deal is for Turkey’s security but it is also face-saving for Putin and by association Assad,” he said. “Iran refused to participate in this attack because of its own bad military and economic situation. The Assad regime is weak and has no ability to attack without the help of Iranian militias.”

The Assad regime was not represented at the bilateral summit between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the Russian resort town of Sochi, and not was it present at a trilateral summit with Iran in Tehran one week ago. The Syrian government had no immediate response to the development, which appears likely to consolidate Turkey’s presence in the north, giving Erdogan a stronger hand in managing the final stages of the war – and aftermath.

Central to the truce is the removal of an extremist coalition from the buffer zone, the dimensions of which are yet to be finalised. Turkish and Russian intelligence officials will soon meet to thrash out the numbers of radical rebels required to leave the province. The agreement suggests that those who agree to exit will be given safe passage to the eastern Hama desert region.

Jawad Abdel Karim, 40, a spokesman for the Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) umbrella group of hardline fighters, said his organisation is, for now, expected to retreat up to 7km (4.3 miles) away from the agreed demarcation point. Forces loyal to the Assad regime, meanwhile, would retreat 10km away. “Give or take, the distance between the opposition and regime will be 15km,” he said.

The Iranian foreign minister, Mohammed Zarif, said he welcomed the apparent breakthrough, adding weight to a growing belief that the deal, or a variation of it, would hold. “Intensive responsible diplomacy over the last few weeks-pursued in my visits to Ankara and Damascus, followed by the Iran-Russia-Turkey Summit in Tehran and the meeting in Sochi-is succeeding to avert war in Idlib with a firm commitment to fight extremist terror. Diplomacy works,” Zarif wrote on Twitter.

HTS, and earlier incarnations of it, has been a significant presence throughout Idlib for the past three years. It has been particularly strong in the south, but has attempted to impose austere theocratic rule in many towns and cities. The numbers of ideologically driven fighters in its ranks have been difficult to gauge. Thousands of men had joined the organisation because of its strength. But as its momentum wanes, the powerful group is starting to lose impetus in some parts of Idlib.

Large-scale demonstrations resembling the earliest days of the Syrian uprising have taken place in northern towns, and gone unchallenged by the organisation. “We hate the brutal regime and HTS as well,” said Abbi. “We will create pressure to make HTS dismantle and disappear, which will make the [de-escalation zone deal] safer. We will continue to demonstrate against all radical groups and we will unite civilians and the Free Syrian Army against them.”

While parts of Idlib appeared to rally behind the truce, not all were convinced that it would hold. “Although we agree with the points mentioned in the agreement between Erdoğan and Putin, have they ever got a result before?” asked Abu Wissam, 32. “Civilians on the ground are still living in fear and worry. We’re all hesitant and we’re all doubtful. And we have nothing to say any more. Our voices went hoarse with demands and no one listened.”

Another Idlib local, Ahmed Hallaq, 34, said: We had bigger dreams and goals than this agreement. All of Syria should have been safe from the Assad regime and his militias, not just a buffer zone. Lots of my friends around here think the same. We don’t trust the regime, we have zero trust in its morals and promises. They violated most, if not everything else that’s been agreed on.”

Additional reporting: Nadia al-Faour