Talking Horses: Tips plus Paul Nicholls' Festival runners guide

Paul Nicholls’ Cheltenham Festival candidates

Here’s a summary of what the champion jumps trainer said about his main contenders for the Cheltenham Festival when he met with the media yesterday. He estimated that he would have about 18 to 20 runners but is mindful that there is plenty of prize money elsewhere in what’s rest of the season and won’t run a horse for the sake of it if he thinks there might be a decent chunk of money to be picked up elsewhere.

Saphir Du Rheu
He’s been somewhat frustrating. He went to Kelso last week and absolutely bolted in, as he should have done, but he jumped really, really well and he’s just beginning to get his act together a little bit. We thought when he won the Grade One at Aintree that he was going to be a superstar over fences but he lost his way a little bit, jumping. But his last two runs have been good. He jumped very well at Cheltenham and stayed on strong over a trip too short, won well the other day. He was a little bit in No Man’s Land, so I’ve entered him in the three-mile handicap on the first day but he’s almost certain to run in the Gold Cup, Andy [Stewart, owner] is dead keen to run him in the Gold Cup. So I suspect he’ll run in the Gold Cup. On the form, he’s not going to trouble the main ones but he’s the sort of horse who’ll run a real tidy race and finish fifth or sixth because he’s got plenty of ability and I know for sure we haven’t seen the best of him yet. There is a really decent race in this horse at one stage or another and at long last he’s getting his act together. He’s got the size and scope and it’s not like he’s fully exposed. Andy had a decent chaser called My Will a few years ago, probably not as good as Saphir Du Rheu, and he ended up finishing fourth in the Gold Cup. You never know, Saphir Du Rheu could pick up some crumbs in the Gold Cup and get placed now. He deserves to be in the line-up.

Movewiththetimes
A progressive horse and ran a really good race in the Betfair. There are lots of option for him at The Festival and we don’t know which race he will be going for at the moment. We have always thought he was a very classy horse and I am looking forward to him jumping fences in the future. He still lacks a bit of experience, running a bit green from the last at Newbury, which was only his fourth run. He could go for the Supreme and I don’t think there is a lot of difference between him and my previous winners of the race, Noland and Al Ferof. They were rated about the same, 146, and he compares favourably with them.

Politologue
He’s very well and he goes for the JLT after a good preparation. He won well at Kempton the other day and has a leading chance. We always thought he would make into a nice chaser and he did really well from run to run. He jumps very nicely and is rated 152 which is a real smart mark for a novice over fences and Cheltenham has been the aim all season.

Dreamcatching
I hadn’t thought of entering him at The Festival before he won on Saturday but he is now in the Fred Winter and is not unlike the horses we have won the race with for the last two years, Diego Du Charmil and Qualando. He has a progressive profile. I thought he would go well at Kempton at Christmas, he had been third on his only start at Auteuil. We rode him completely wrong at Kempton, thinking he was a stayer and he ran free and did not get home. Though, also, I’m convinced he wasn’t right that day. He was a different horse at Wincanton on Saturday, bolting in, and could not have been more impressive.

Zarkandar
He’s done nothing but improve since he had a wind operation at Christmas. I say wind op, we cauterized his palate, just tweaked it, and he seems to be fine after his Haydock win on Saturday. The Stayers’ Hurdle will be different type of race but he is definitely in the mix. As long as he’s all right, I suspect he’ll go to Cheltenham. The lads that own him like Cheltenham.

Dodging Bullets
Won the Champion Chase two years ago but has struggled since and is not as good as he was. He has dropped down to a mark of 151 and is going to run in the Grand Annual. The race will suit him quite nicely, there’s no point running him in Grade Ones at the moment and we want to try him in a handicap. He has come out the Newbury race very well.

El Bandit
Has several entries but is being aimed at the Pertemps Final and he won four or five on the trot in the autumn. He won the qualifier at Edinburgh the other day, surprising us, as we didn’t think he was really ready. He went up 4lb for that and he has to go forward again, but he is a very progressive horse.

Le Prezien
I took him out the JLT, he won’t run in that. He’s in the Arkle and the Grand Annual and the novice handicap chase. If Altior wasn’t in the Arkle, I’d be very keen to run in that because I think, take him out of it, it’s got a one-sided look. He’s won at Cheltenham already over two miles. At Sandown the other day he travelled extremely well but because we were hanging on to him, he didn’t jump as well as he can and I’m sort of half convinced two miles suits him better when they go a good gallop, so he could end up running in the Grand Annual. He doesn’t look as well as some in his coat, he’s got three weeks just to change his coat over but he’s a good horse, he’s won two or three chases this season. Him and Clan Des Obeaux, I don’t think ran their races at Sandown the other day. One or two of those horses that had a hard time over Christmas didn’t probably run quite up to form and I think they’ll do better in the spring.

Diego Du Charmil
He won last year’s Fred Winter, a race we’ve always done well with. He came out first time and won the four-year-old handicap at Chepstow and then I ran him a bit quick at Ascot and then the last day at Ascot before Christmas it was too soft. Put him away, came back at Musselburgh two weeks ago on fast ground and won very nicely but he’s gone up now to a mark of 150, which isn’t the easiest in the world. He’s only got one entry, he’s in the County Hurdle and we’ll see between now and then what else is in the race and what the ground is. He wants decent ground, so he’s a possible to go there. The other race I’ve got in my mind, he does need to be fresh, is the Scottish Champion Hurdle. That would be a proper race for him as well but we’re quite keen to go to Cheltenham if the ground’s suitable and he’s not got a silly weight. He’s going to be a really exciting chaser for us next season.

Coillte Lass
Has also been really progressive. She won her first three starts and then was third to Vroom Vroom Mag at level weights at Doncaster. It is great for Ditcheat Thoroughbreds to have a runner with a live chance at The Festival in their first year of operation. She is one of the best novice mares and will go for the mares novice hurdle.

Romain De Senam
Amost certain to run in the two-and-a-half-mile novice handicap chase [also entered in the Grand Annual]. He was only beaten a short-head in the Fred Winter last season. That day, he stayed on strongly and he obviously wants two and a half miles over fences. He won at Leicester, then I ran him five days later over two [miles], which was a mistake. It was a bit sharp for him, but he ran nicely enough. He will get in the race and he must have a leading chance. He wants a real fast-run race, like it was in the Fred Winter, so he can use his jumping and stay on into the race.

Old Guard
Likes Cheltenham, always runs well there. Started off the season chasing, fell at the first at Newton Abbot, jumped terrible when he won at Exeter, so we just abandoned that for now, chasing. He ran well behind Modus in the Lanzarote off top weight, stayed on really strongly over two miles five, so we just thought the Coral Cup would be an absolute great race to run in. He’ll hopefully not be top weight. Andy [Stewart, part-owner] asked me leave him in the Stayers’ Hurdle. Andy loves having runners in the good race but to be honest with you, we know where the form is. Unless the ground is fast, I’d say he’s almost certain to run in the Coral Cup. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him this season, probably the trainer’s fault for going chasing. We always thought he was going to be a superb chaser. It just goes to show you, you never know until they get out there. He’s a little bit like Celestial Halo, just doesn’t have the bottle for it. I’m not saying he won’t in the future but at the moment we’ll stick hurdling.

[And some horses the press asked about, which may or may not go to the Festival]

Bouvreuil
He hasn’t been the easiest in the world to train. If he hadn’t had a few little niggles, he’d have run before now. But he is well capable of running well if we can get him there in top form. He can go on any ground. He had a wind op in the summer. He goes well fresh. I also think he’d be awesome in the Topham [at Aintree in April]. A lot of these horses, you don’t want to go to Cheltenham just because it’s Cheltenham.

Modus
He’s in everything. He’s on 155 now, it’s not going to make life easy for him. He’s a good horse, I’m really pleased with him. I could wait and go to Aintree for the proper race [Grade One over two and a half miles]. He just took a little while to come to himself, whereas last year he fell apart after Christmas. It takes a while to get to know them.

Frodon
He’ll run at Fontwell on Sunday. He’s now 153, he probably won’t win a handicap now, we had our chance in the autumn. You look at the JLT, he’d probably finish fourth but if I play my cards right, we could probably win three or four novice chases before the end of the season, worth a lot of money. So he’ll probably go to Fontwell and maybe Cheltenham in April, those sort of races. He’s not going to win a JLT on all known form. But he’s fit and well and he’s in there just in case.

Aux Ptits Soins
Will probably wait and go to the three-miler at Aintree. I put him in the Coral Cup but he’ll almost certainly wait. I think he showed plenty on Saturday and if we can get him jumping really well again, he’s definitely a player in those three-mile hurdles. He’s very much like Big Buck’s in a lot of ways, he’s probably not going to jump fences as well as he should, so why not think about him doing really well as a hurdler? I think he’ll improve enormously for Saturday’s run. If he’d jumped well on Saturday, he’d have gone close to winning.

Art Mauresque
Why I’m hesitant, there’s the Vodafone Gold Cup at Newbury next week, so he could go there or do both. He is totally ground dependent and there are some good races for him at the backend of the season, so I wouldn’t want to run him if it was soft and ruin the spring for him but he’ll be ready to run if we want him to.

Keltus
Is in the Kim Muir but he probably won’t be ready. He’ll probably wait, have a couple of novice chases in April.

Unioniste
He may well run because David Maxwell’s bought him now to ride him next year hunter chasing. He’s quite keen to have a runner in the Kim Muir, so he’ll run and ride him himself.

Brio Conti
The plan is the Martin Pipe, as long as he gets in. It’s a 0-145 and he’s 134. The way it’s gone now, he might struggle but if he gets in, that’s the plan. He was good [at Doncaster]. He wants good ground. He’d definitely have a chance if he got in.

Lac Fontana
He’s going to run in the Martin Pipe as well. He ran OK at Newbury the other day, got a little bit tired and he’s dropped down a few pounds but he’s won a County Hurdle. There’s lots of dark horses like him who could run really well.

Pacha Du Polder
Foxhunters, he definitely runs. Bryony Frost rides him. He won the other day, ran very well last year. Decent ground, he’ll run well again. Last year, he was running in point to points and then I had to run him three times for Victoria [Pendleton] to ride him. He still ran really well but he’s going to be fresh this year and he’ll have a good go at it. I think he does get three miles now. Bryony rode him well the other day and it’s good to give people an opportunity.

Wonderful Charm
Ground dependent. He wants good ground [for the Foxhunters]. If it was soft, he wouldn’t run. Will Biddick will choose who to ride nearer the time [he can also ride Ask The Weatherman for Jack Barber].

Zubayr
He won’t go to Cheltenham, I don’t think. He was disappointing the other day. I don’t know why he’s out of form, we’ll just have to wait to get him back. It might be we have to leave him to next year.

Caid Du Berlais
He’s in at Saturday at Kempton in that £100,000 race and he’s got quite a nice weight if it didn’t rain all week. He really does want good ground. He could go Saturday but if not, he’ll run in one of the handicaps. He’s a winner waiting to happen, I’m sure he is. I think he wants three miles on good ground. Over two and a half, they go too quick for him.

Arpege D’Alene
He is a bit frustrating. He ran in the Pertemps last year; if he’d jumped the last, he probably would have won. He skied it a little bit. He’s got a load of ability. He’s been crying out to run over four miles, to be honest with you, and a big field, so the National Hunt Chase has always been his target. Will Biddick will ride. There’s always plenty that run and you get plenty of cover. He jumped left-handed all the way round Ascot and he was just acting the prat a bit, really. If he’d just had a cut at the last two, he’d have gone close. He’s not the most straightforward but he has got plenty of ability. Three miles round Ascot is probably a bit sharp for him but that’s making excuses for him. If he’d been a bit braver at the last two, he might well have won. Four miles might suit him, give him a bit more time.

Clan Des Obeaux
I have left him in the JLT. There wasn’t much wrong with him the other day, I don’t think he particularly liked the ground at Sandown and he jumped a little bit right-handed. He didn’t perform as well as he can and he ran really well at Cheltenham over Christmas. It’s more likely I’ll find a small race and go to Ayr with him, something like that. He’s only five, I don’t want to overdo him.

Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook

There’s some good jump racing at Doncaster and I’ve found a 10-1 shot to be interested in. Rocky’s Treasure (3.15) steps into handicap company for the first time after showing some promise in a maiden and a novice hurdle at the end of last year.

He’s a half-brother to Double Shuffle, who must be rated nearly 150 now, so there’s plenty of scope for this one to be well treated if he has some of that familial ability. He comes from the Kim Bailey yard that seems to be coming good this month and the step up in trip may help him, considering he won over three miles as a pointer last spring.

I like 7-2 about Saint Are (3.45) in the following veterans race, which he won last year from just 1lb lower. He’s always been a spring horse and I bet we see a much better effort than he has so far mustered this season.

In Ludlow’s opener, 100-30 is tempting about Bobo Mac (2.00), who has joined Tom Symonds from Michael Hourigan. He’s winless in 11, mostly in bumpers, but I think it’s fair to say he’s been brought along gradually and there was a lot to like about his second place at Limerick on Boxing Day. The winner was a Mullins / Ricci hotpot that went into Grade One company next time, while the Gordon Elliott-trained third and fourth runners have both won since.

Doncaster
2.10 Charming Zen 2.45 Diable De Sivola 3.15 Rocky’s Treasure 3.45 Saint Are (nb) 4.20 Paint The Clouds 4.55 Tayzar

Lingfield
2.20 Silver Springs 2.55 Bamako Du Chatelet 3.25 Wedding Breakfast 3.55 Mitigate 4.30 Whatelseaboutyou 5.05 Synodic

Ludlow
2.00 Bobo Mac 2.35 Dr Dunraven 3.05 One More Hero 3.35 William Money 4.10 Stamp Your Feet 4.45 Mendip Express 5.20 Theatrebar

Kempton
5.45 Royal Normandy 6.15 Sun Or Shade 6.45 Askari (nap) 7.15 Steelriver 7.45 Vettori Rules 8.15 Shan Dun na nGall