Ten constituency races to watch on election night

Chingford and Woodford Green

Chingford and Woodford Green, which has been represented by the former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith since 1992, is one of Momentum’s top target seats. The Greater London constituency voted 50.1% to 49.9% to remain in the EU referendum and “IDS”, as he is known, saw his majority slashed from 8,400 to 2,400 in 2017, with Labour up 15 points on 2015. The Labour candidate this time is economist Faiza Shaheen, who is seen as a rising star in the party.

Bishop Auckland

This County Durham seat has been Labour since 1918, aside from a four-year period in the 1930s. Constituents voted overwhelmingly to leave the European Union in 2016 (60.9% to 39.1%), though the area’s MP since 2005, Helen Goodman, supported remain. She has a majority of just 500 – and if the Tories take this seat, it would be seen as a signal the “red wall” of longtime Labour-held constituencies is beginning to crumble.

Finchley and Golders Green

Luciana Berger, for the Liberal Democrats, is hoping to take the north London seat despite her party finishing a distant third in 2017. The odds are still that Tory incumbent Mike Freer will hang on, but Berger is running him close. She is firstly seeking to tempt Tory voters in a largely remain-minded urban seat. Berger, who quit Labour after receiving antisemitic abuse, is also targeting her old party in a strongly Jewish area on its failures about antisemitism and a perceived fudge over Brexit.

Esher and Walton

When Jo Swinson stopped off in the Surrey constituency on her first battlebus trip, some eyebrows were raised: it is held by foreign secretary Dominic Raab with a 23,000-plus majority. But the Lib Dems hope their candidate, Monica Harding, can benefit from mass tactical voting which would see local Labour supporters and other opposed to Brexit – or who simply dislike Raab – club together. The Greens stood down their candidate to help. An outside bet, but could still be 2019’s Michael Portillo moment.

South West Hertfordshire

Once considered a typical Tory safe seat, held by the party since its creation in 1950 and by former justice secretary David Gauke since 2005, the constituency – which voted by 53.8% to remain in the EU – is now the site of a battle between Brexit-backing and remainer Conservatives. Gauke was stripped of the party whip in September when he voted to block a no-deal Brexit. He is now standing against the Conservative candidate Gagan Mohindra as an independent, attracting the support of former Conservative prime minister John Major and former chancellor George Osborne.

Hartlepool

The Brexit party still has this Labour leave seat in their sights as a possible win despite a rocky campaign hit by a Tory squeeze. Farage put his top candidate, party chair Richard Tice, in the seat but the word on the ground is that every party is struggling to get people to vote at all. Turnout is expected to be 50-60%. The seat is currently held by Mike Hill, with a 7,650 majority. Second place in 2017 were the Tories.

North East Fife

The SNP held on to North East Fife by two votes in 2017, just 0.004% of the vote, making it the most marginal seat in the UK and the Liberal Democrats’ top target. The constituency was represented by former Lib Dem leader Menzies Campbell for 28 years before it was taken by the SNP in 2015. Local MP Stephen Gethins is up against Lib Dem former police officer Wendy Chamberlain this time, and she told STV that she thought Brexit was the most important issue on voters’ minds.

Glasgow North East

This is a major target for the SNP, and is symbolic of whether Labour still has a home in its once solid-red central belt seats. SNP candidate Anne McLaughlin is well known, having held the seat between 2015 and 2017. Turnout is a problem for all candidates as it was the lowest in the country at the last election at 53%. It’s been reported that the non-voters are not shifting and are yet to be inspired to turn out for polling day, which makes it very difficult to call.

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Labour since 1950, this seat, held by Gareth Snell, has become a hotly contested marginal. A Tory gain here would be a jewel in the crown for the campaign, signalling a long sought after foothold in the urban Midlands. And this would be despite leave supporter Snell rebelling against his own party to back Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. Between the 2017 by-election and the 2017 general election, the Labour’s lead on the Tories widened.

Canterbury

Canterbury had been represented by the Conservative party for more than a century when Labour’s Rosie Duffield won the seat in 2017, with a majority of just 187. The victory was attributed to the swell in support for Jeremy Corbyn among the city’s growing student population and opposition to Brexit. Last month, the Lib Dem candidate in the seat, Tim Walker, stood down, saying his party risked splitting the remainer vote and handing the seat back to the Tories. Despite calls for them to step back from the race entirely, the party replaced Walker with Claire Malcolmson the following day.