Theresa May could stand down before election, No 10 suggests

Downing Street has dropped a heavy hint that Theresa May would not seek to lead her party into the next general election, even if she wins Wednesday night’s confidence vote.

As May embarked on a series of face-to-face meetings with her backbench colleagues in a bid to secure their backing, a spokesman said: “She does not believe that this vote, today, is about who leads the Conservative party into the next election – it is about whether it is sensible to change the leader at this point in the Brexit process.”

Asked if she would set a specific departure date, her spokesman said, “I’m not aware of that, no.”

But he added: “She believes it’s her duty to serve as long as the party wants her to … she serves at the pleasure of the Conservative party.”

That is a different message from the one the prime minister delivered in January, when on a trip to China she told reporters: “I’m not a quitter.”

In a statement outside No 10 on Wednesday morning, May vowed to fight for her colleagues’ support “with everything I’ve got” – and warned that overthrowing her could hand the keys of Downing Street to Jeremy Corbyn.

“A change of leadership in the Conservative party now would put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it,” she said. “A new leader wouldn’t be in place by the 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament.”

Why has a confidence vote happened?

A total of 48 Conservative MPs – representing 15% of the parliamentary party – have backed a confidence vote in Theresa May in an attempt to trigger a leadership contest.

When will the confidence vote take place?

Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, has confirmed the vote will take place on Wednesday evening between 6pm and 8pm in a House of Commons committee room. A result is expected shortly afterwards.

How many MPs would need to vote against May to oust her?

A simple majority is required – the figure is 158 MPs. However, it is widely believed that May would be under intense pressure to resign if the were a significant number of no-confidence votes, even if she wins.

The exact number is anybody’s guess but over 100 votes against the prime minister would be undeniably a bad result given that ministers will be expected to vote for her. Should May defeat her critics, they would not be permitted to challenge her for another year.

What happens if May loses?

She will have to tender her resignation as leader of the Conservative party, and ultimately as prime minister.

An open contest for the Conservative leadership would then follow, although May cannot take part. Tory MPs then whittle down the number of candidates over a matter of days to two – who face the party’s estimated 120,000 membership in a vote. After a three week ballot a new prime minister would be expected to take over in January.

A change of Conservative leader and prime minister would not automatically lead to a general election, although the Labour party could respond through a vote of no confidence.

The next general election is not formally due until 2022, under the Fixed Term Parliament Act; but with MPs deadlocked over the best way forward for Brexit, the likelihood of a fresh general election is increasing.

By promising to step down before the Conservatives next face the country, the prime minister may hope to peel off Conservative MPs who broadly support her on Brexit; but are concerned that she would be an electoral liability.

Several MPs, including former No 10 adviser George Freeman, have suggested the PM would be more likely to secure their support if she made clear she did not intend to stay on in Downing Street after Brexit.

Many remain scarred by the lacklustre “strong and stable” campaign for last year’s poll, which resulted in the Tories losing their parliamentary majority. Freeman has called for a leadership contest next summer.

May was repeatedly challenged at prime minister’s questions, over her leadership of the Brexit negotiations, and the controversial decision to pull a vote on her deal at the last minute on Monday.

She needs 158 Conservative MPs – half the parliamentary party – to back her in the secret ballot on Wednesday evening, to survive. It will take place after she has addressed backbenchers at the 1922 Committee.

More than 100 Tories have publicly declared their support for the PM – many of them on Twitter – though some privately admit to doubts.

May’s spokesman said: “She is fighting for every vote; we’ve seen support from across the parliamentary party this morning, but obviously there’s a lot more to do.”

He said the prime minister had not yet received the extra reassurances on the Irish backstop she has sought from fellow EU leaders. A planned trip to Dublin late on Wednesday was cancelled in the light of the vote – as was a cabinet meeting.

If May defeats the no confidence motion – even by a single vote – she cannot be challenged for another 12 months. But her spokesman declined to say whether she would serve a full year.

Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, said he had no qualms about holding the contest so quickly, after the number of MPs submitting letters of no confidence in the PM exceeded 48 on Tuesday.

He said given that colleagues were mostly in Westminster this week, expecting to be voting on the Brexit deal, he saw no reason to delay.

Those who are not in Westminster must email him with an agreed proxy by 4pm. Brady will check the ballot, along with two other officers of the 1922 Committee, Cheryl Gillan and Charles Walker.

Brady said he was in conversation with the chief whip, Julian Smith, about the voting status of two MPs who are suspended from the party, Charlie Elphicke and Andrew Griffiths.

He said the ballot paper would have two options: “I have confidence in the prime minister” and “I do not have confidence in the prime minister”.