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Theresa May can publish impact assessment into her desired Brexit deal 'right now', Government insider says

Prime Minister Theresa May leaves Downing Street: Getty
Prime Minister Theresa May leaves Downing Street: Getty

There is nothing to stop Theresa May immediately publishing a forecast of the exact Brexit deal she wants from Brussels, a Government insider has told The Independent.

Whitehall officials have created a forecasting model into which any Brexit circumstances can be fed to estimate how the UK’s GDP growth would perform.

Ms May has sought to play down a document which showed the UK worse off under three different Brexit scenarios, by saying it had not explored the exact deal she wants to agree.

But news about the Whitehall forecasting model has led critics to question why the Government does not yet appear to have tested the deal Ms May hopes to secure, and whether the Prime Minister even knows exactly what it looks like.

It comes as her former deputy Damian Green called on the Government to publish all Brexit analysis and attacked politicians who “won’t accept evidence” stacking up about what will happen to the UK’s economy after EU withdrawal.

Earlier this year a leaked document showed the UK would be worse off under three tested scenarios – a ‘no deal’ Brexit, Brexit with a free trade deal with the EU, and Norway-style access to the single market – than if it stayed in the EU.

At the time Ms May said the paper was “very preliminary” and had not tested the specific scenario she is seeking.

But an official told The Independent: “The analysis that is being seen comes from an economic modelling exercise.

“You can feed into the model whatever circumstances you like to test any outcome of the Brexit talks.

“So there is nothing to stop the Government testing any outcome right now, in addition to the three that were included in the paper.”

Ms May has pledged to give Parliament the information it needs to vote on the deal she agrees, but critics attacked her today for failing to be open about the impact of her plans, despite Brexit being just a year away.

Labour MP Chuka Umunna, a supporter of the Open Britain campaign, said: “This suggests yet again the public are being kept in the dark on the impact of Brexit.

“That’s either because the PM has no idea what deal she wants, so is in not in a position to test it, or because she does have an idea, but doesn't want us to see the results, which are highly likely to indicate that staying in the single market and customs union are the best possible options.”

A Government spokeswoman said officials are “working to build the best possible analysis to inform the negotiations on our exit from the EU.”

She added: “As Ministers have made clear, this is provisional internal work. The modelling is only one part of an ongoing programme of analysis which government is undertaking to inform decisions."

Ministers were eventually forced to show the leaked impact assessment to MPs under strictly controlled conditions, but the Whitehall paper sparked vitriolic attacks from Tory backbenchers who accused civil servants that drew it up of being biased against Brexit.

In an interview broadcast on Monday evening Theresa May’s former deputy Damian Green warned that the UK is in danger of adopting “faith based” Brexit policies if ministers ignore economic forecasts predicting a hit to the British economy.

He told the BBC: “There’s a great problem of politicians who won’t accept evidence.

“We can all argue about economic forecasts and none of them are 100 per cent accurate, but you have to some extent rely on them and if you reject evidence you don’t like, then you are likely to end up producing faith based policies.

“There are politicians who would prefer not to have the evidence there.”

Mr Green went on to say: “If analysis is being produced then publish it. And frankly there will be a big political debate… let’s have this argument in public, that’s what democracies do.”