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Three potentially fatal flaws in Manchester City's title defence

Erling Haaland of Manchester City glances towards the Premier League trophy - GETTY IMAGES
Erling Haaland of Manchester City glances towards the Premier League trophy - GETTY IMAGES

Manchester City are away to West Ham on Sunday as they begin the defence of their Premier League title. There are three reasons that the campaign is not a foregone conclusion.

Lack of squad depth

Statistically speaking, Manchester City have a 77 per cent chance of wining the Premier League this season; such is Pep Guardiola’s title-winning strike rate in his 13 years of management at the elite level.

But this summer has featured some calculated gambles, most notably with the departures of four key players — Fernandinho, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko — who made a combined 92 Premier League appearances and scored 23 goals last season.

And while Erling Haaland, Kalvin Phillips and Julian Alvarez are hardly shabby replacements, a thin squad has been rendered even thinner.

By a generous assessment, City’s first team squad numbers 20 at the moment, for a team that may play more than 60 games this season, plus the players' World Cup commitments.

Guardiola has always preferred to operate with small numbers - not least because it makes for a more harmonious dressing room if there are fewer player discontented by not being selected every week.

But this could be pushing a point. When Liverpool pipped City to the title in 2020, that season had begun with City light in the centre-half area: Aymeric Laporte was lost to an long-term injury and Guardiola spent much of that campaign playing veteran midfielder Fernandinho out of position.

Symbolic or not, Laporte is already ruled out this season until September following a knee operation.

“I thought after five or six years together we need to change manager or change a few players,” said Guardiola.

“It's good to change, refresh everyone, old players. New players bring a new energy, new desires. You have to take decisions always before things happen. That's why we are paid.

“The intention is always to get better. If the transfer window didn't happen the way it happened, and the four players would be here, we'd be the same team with the same desire to do well.

“It happens, we adapt with the new ones, all the best for the people who left. They deserve the success, all of them deserve it.”

The club can rely on the academy for other options, and Guardiola is relaxed about the situation. Few could argue against a man with his record but it is certainly a concern.

Risk factor: 9/10

Haaland's injury concerns

Signing a player who has scored 62 goals in 67 Bundesliga games can hardly be considered a major risk, especially for a bargain £51.2 million.

But the physically-imposing 6’5” striker is only 22 and has a history of injury niggles. Only once in his seven seasons of top-level football has he played more than 30 games in all competitions - making 41 appearances for Borussia Dortmund in 2020-21. This season, City could be playing half that number again.

Haaland is still looking for match sharpness and, while the goals will undoubtedly come, his fitness will be an issue to watch as Guardiola seeks to replace the 30 goals for which Jesus and Sterling combined in all competitions last season.

Risk factor 4/10

Options at full back

In ten heady days in July 2017, Guardiola spent £123.5 million on three full-backs: Benjamin Mendy, Danilo and Kyle Walker. It is tempting to think he could have done with at least some sort of investment in that position this summer.

Joao Cancelo has proved a brilliant signing, primarily on the left but equally able on the right, and played 52 times last season, more than any other City player.

On the right side, Kyle Walker is 32 and started barely half the league games last season as injuries and wear and tear took their toll.

Beyond that duo? Now that Oleksandr Zinchenko has left, centre-half Nathan Ake or youngster Josh Wilson-Ebrand, who has one League Cup game to his name, are the alternatives. On the right, John Stones is a potential deputy.

Left-back, in particular, appeared a must for City in the transfer window although they were adamant they would not be drawn into an auction for Brighton’s Marc Cucurella as he headed towards Chelsea.

There may be a masterstroke up their sleeves before the window closes but, as it stands, full-back could quickly become a problem area, especially if there is a long-term injury to Walker or Cancelo.

"Nothing special,” said Guardiola when asked if he had a new left-back target. “We are the same - Josh is there, Joao is there, Nathan can be there, and there are some surprises we can do. We will see; there are still so many days until the end of the month.”

Risk factor 7/10