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Tories face huge losses in rural areas at next election, poll suggests

According to Survation’s analysis, Jeremy Hunt would lose his South West Surrey seat if current polling trends persist - Jordan Pettitt/PA
According to Survation’s analysis, Jeremy Hunt would lose his South West Surrey seat if current polling trends persist - Jordan Pettitt/PA

The Conservatives are facing a rout in their rural heartlands that could result in Jeremy Hunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg losing their seats at the next election, polling suggests.

It comes amid a warning that the party is losing support in the countryside “after years of economic neglect”.

The Country Land & Business Association (CLA) last month commissioned Survation to poll 1,017 adults living in the 100 most rural constituencies in England.

The poll found that support for the Tories among residents of the seats has collapsed by 18 points since the 2019 general election, while Labour has surged by 16 points.

Neck and neck

The reversal in voter intentions has meant the parties are almost neck-and-neck, with the Conservatives on 41 per cent and Labour just behind on 36 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats were meanwhile on 13 per cent (down three points on 2019), while the Greens were on 5 per cent (up two points). “Other” parties were on 4 per cent (down three points). Of the 100 most rural seats in England, the Tories currently hold 96.

However, according to Survation’s analysis, if the polling results were replicated at the next election, the Conservatives would lose 21 seats, with Labour taking 18 and the Lib Dems picking up three.

Among those being displaced would be Mr Hunt. The Chancellor would lose his South West Surrey seat – which has been Conservative since its creation in 1983 – to the Lib Dems.

The other Cabinet ministers predicted to lose their seats would be Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride in Central Devon; Transport Secretary Mark Harper in the Forest of Dean; and Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer, who would be narrowly beaten by Labour in South East Cambridgeshire.

Tories could be toppled

Other high-profile Tories who could be toppled include Mr Rees-Mogg, former business secretary, and former defence secretary Liam Fox, who are both predicted to lose to Labour in their Somerset seats.

The CLA said the survey revealed a shift in the political landscape that showed the Tories were “losing the loyalty of the ‘Rural Wall’ after years of economic neglect”.

It highlighted a lack of affordable housing and a cost-of-living “rural premium” for countryside residents as particular areas of grievance.

A report by MPs on the All Party Parliamentary Group on the “Rural Powerhouse” recently found that a shortage of affordable housing, inadequate power infrastructure and poor connectivity has left rural communities spending 10-20 per cent more on everyday items such as fuel, despite wages being 7.5 per cent lower than their urban counterparts.

‘Feel left behind’

Mark Tufnell, president of the CLA, said: “In recent years, we’ve seen how quickly communities which feel left behind can rewrite the electoral map. In 2024, it could be the countryside’s turn.

“There is a simple truth – no political party has at present shown that it understands, let alone shares, the aspirations of rural communities.”

He added: “The outdated planning regime holding rural businesses back, the lack of affordable housing driving families out, the outdated infrastructure limiting entrepreneurs’ potential, it is all having a devastating impact.

“Any party which is willing to develop a robust and ambitious plan for the rural economy will secure significant support. Any party that wants to treat the countryside as a ‘museum’ will be punished.”

The polling found that 69 per cent of those living in the constituencies believed that the Government was not doing enough to address the cost-of-living crisis in rural communities, with just 17 per cent believing the opposite.

Respondents were split on the issue of house building, with 44 per cent saying they supported additional homes being built in their community while 46 per cent opposed them.

However, 44 per cent said they thought reforming the planning system would help stimulate growth in rural communities, compared to 26 per cent who thought it would not help.