Tories to be wiped out in London, according to latest YouGov MRP poll

Keir Starmer smiling whilst talking to a reporter
-Credit: (Image: Adam Toms/MyLondon)

The Conservative Party is heading for wipeout in London, according to the latest YouGov poll. A map - shown below - suggests London will be solidly Labour with the exception of a few Liberal Democrat victories in the South West and a small number of Tory seats on the fringes.

The public opinion company’s first Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll predicts that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is on track to reign victorious by a landslide greater than Sir Tony Blair’s famous win in 1997, obliterating 14 years of Tory rule. As it stands, Keir Starmer is set to win the July 4 election by 194 seats, in contrast, Sir Tony had a margin of 179.

This would see the Tories reduced to a humiliating 140 seats, which would be the parties’ worst performance since 1906. The most marginal seats were also highlighted, which includes West London's Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner.

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The only remaining Tory seats would be Orpington, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Hornchurch and Upminster, and Romford.

The Lib Dem seats would be Carshalton and Wallington, Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Sutton and Cheam, Twickenham and Wimbledon. The data does not yet take into account Jeremy Corbyn’s independent run in North Islington as the model will only reflect this when candidate lists are officially published, said YouGov.

Meanwhile, Greens are likely to capture a second seat in Bristol, with their next strongest performance in Dulwich and West Norwood (still forecast to be a strong Labour win).

The huge revelation comes on the same day contentious Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced his comeback into politics. It is not yet clear how this will influence voters.

He said he felt like he was letting voters down by not standing in the election, as he announced he will stand for parliament in Clacton and lead Reform UK for the next five years. "I simply couldn’t help feeling that somehow they felt I was letting them down,” he said.

“I’ve changed my mind. It’s allowed you know, it’s not always a sign of weakness. It could potentially be a sign of strength.

“So I am going to stand in this election. I’ll be launching my candidacy at midday tomorrow in the Essex seaside town of Clacton.”

He continued: “Richard (Tice) is more than happy for me to put my head and shoulders firmly over the parapet and take the flack so I’m coming back as leader of Reform UK, but not just for this election campaign. I’m coming back for the next five years.”

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