The Tory Right is cruising towards victory
Before tonight’s votes were announced, the press reported concerns from Kemi Badenoch’s supporters that she might drop into third place, and suggestions that other candidates were lending votes to people for opaque, but surely nefarious reasons.
With the result announced, that looks a bit like expectation management. The shadow housing secretary gained six votes and remains comfortably in second place. Likewise, Robert Jenrick retained the top spot with 33 votes, albeit with a slightly narrower lead.
That Mel Stride was eliminated, meanwhile, is not a surprise. He and Priti Patel were always the candidates most likely to struggle to reach the final four and have a chance to exhibit at the Conservative Party Conference, and it always seemed very unlikely that he would pick up any transfers from her.
Nor did the other two broadly One Nation candidates fare much better. Tom Tugendhat picked up an extra four votes, enough to bring him level with James Cleverly, whose score didn’t budge since the first round.
Of course, both of them will surely do better in the third round, when it is Stride’s centrist supporters redistributing their votes. But each has a lot of ground to make up if they’re to close the gap with Badenoch and Jenrick.
Much can happen in a month. The next round of MP voting won’t be held until after the conference, and each candidate will be hoping that the chance to engage directly with activists plays in their favour.
Badenoch’s campaign in particular has been greatly helped by all the evidence, such as YouGov’s polling and a ConservativeHome survey, that she will defeat all comers in the members’ round. Whatever their relationship with her personally, there are lots of MPs who like to back a winner.
But the redistribution of Stride’s votes is also a big strategic moment for the One Nation wing, and potentially a pivotal one for the contest as a whole.
At present the two remaining candidates of the Right are comfortably ahead. If they remain so, then the calculation for One Nation MPs will start shifting towards choosing whichever of Badenoch or Jenrick they like best, or at least dislike worst.
On the other hand, if either Cleverly or Tugendhat can generate a sense of momentum and close the distance sufficiently to have a plausible shot at making the final round, that could be the cue for that wing of the party to row in behind its most plausible champion.