Tory no-show: Eastleigh candidate backs out of debate

By Ian Dunt

The Tories candidate in Eastleigh was staying away from a live hustings debate today, in a move interpreted as an attempt to hide her away.

Maria Hutchings will not be attending the Five Live debate between the candidates, even though a consensus is emerging that the Liberal Democrats are taking the lead.

"You have to ask why the Conservative machine keeps trying to hide her away," Liberal Democrat president Tim Farron said.

Hutchings has proven a colourful and out-spoken character since the campaign began, with decidedly right-wing views on gay marriage, Europe and abortion.

The selection of the candidate who failed to win the seat off Chris Huhne in 2010 baffled many political analysts.

Some have interpreted her selection as a sign the Conservatives' national leadership has lost control over the party, in a manner similar to Labour in the 1970s and 1980s.

Analysts presumed the decision to keep Hutchings away from the debate was an effort to stop her making more controversial statements in a live radio format.

If the Tories fail to take Eastleigh next week, it is likely to encourage rebellious backbenchers to make life difficult for David Cameron and George Osborne.

Party strategists will interpret the loss as a sign the Tories will fail to take 20-odd target seats off the Lib Dems in a general election, making it almost inconceivable the party can win a parliamentary majority.

London Mayor Boris Johnson appeared to show signs of that frustration yesterday when he toured the constituency, reportedly muttering "sodding Lib Dem voters" while leafleting and then shouting "have some bumf" when passing campaign material to voters.

Lib Dems have been making solid use of their strong local control of the area, with detailed information about where their supporters are and a disciplined approach to canvassing.

The party's operation is built on a get-out-the-vote strategy rather than an appeal to new voters.

A win in Eastleigh would give the party a much-needed shot in the arm, proving it can defend its bastions against challengers and that 2015 may not signal its extinction.

It would prove that local campaigns can overcome the gloomy national perception of the party and make it much less likely that Nick Clegg will face a leadership challenge from another party figure, like Farron or Vince Cable, before the next election.

Meanwhile, Labour is struggling to benefit from its use of John O'Farrell, the satirist it hoped would boost its performance in the area.

Instead, Ukip is expected to take third place, capitalising on the constituencies predominantly working class voters in the town centre while taking middle class voters from the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives.